Is it time to enter the market for MSTR after the premium reset?

Author: Chloe, ChainCatcher

While Bitcoin prices have retreated 30% from their all-time highs and spot ETFs have been experiencing net outflows for three consecutive months, Strategy, the world's largest Bitcoin strategic reserve company, has bucked the trend by aggressively adding over $3.7 billion in a single month. Simultaneously, its stock, MSTR, has undergone a sharp correction of over 60%, and its mNAV has been lowered from 2.4 to a more rational range of 1.07. This article will analyze three future scenarios for Strategy under different market conditions, combining macroeconomic data and the current weak institutional environment. With the premium bubble bursting, has it arrived at the best entry point for MSTR?

Strategy bucks the trend, buying over $3.7 billion worth of BTC in a single month. After reaching an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin experienced a sharp pullback, currently hovering around $88,000, a drop of 30%. However, this correction did not deter Strategy, the world's largest Bitcoin reserve holder. In early 2026, the company continued its aggressive buying spree, demonstrating its strong confidence in Bitcoin to the global market. According to data from Bitcoin Strategy Tracker (https://saylortracker.com/?tab=home), Strategy purchased over 40,000 Bitcoins in January 2026 alone. In particular, within just two weeks from January 6th to January 20th, Strategy purchased a total of 35,932 Bitcoins in two batches, with an average purchase price ranging from $91,500 to $95,300. Statistics show that Strategy's total investment in January reached a staggering $3.7 billion; as of January 27th, its balance sheet showed a cumulative holding of 712,647 Bitcoins, with an overall average purchase cost of $76,038. Besides its aggressive buying spree in the spot market, Strategy is also actively expanding its influence into the European market. Several financial institutions have launched leveraged products linked to Strategy (MSTR) on major European exchanges, attempting to attract traditional capital from across the Atlantic. On the other hand, top global financial institutions have shown a significant increase in interest in holding MSTR. Vanguard Group, an asset management giant, recently disclosed holding Strategy stock; the Louisiana Employees Retirement Fund in the United States and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group, a Japanese financial giant, have also recently reported including MSTR in their portfolios. However, despite the enthusiastic buying of Strategy and numerous positive news, the overall market chill has not been dispelled. For investors, current macroeconomic data reveals a clear demand gap: Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced net outflows for three consecutive months: Since November 2025, US Bitcoin spot ETFs have been in a three-month period of capital outflows, including a net outflow of $3.48 billion in November and $1.09 billion in December. Although the outflow rate slowed to $111 million in January 2026, the outflow trend has not ended. This shows that mainstream Wall Street funds have been continuously withdrawing during this period, in stark contrast to Strategy's contrarian increase in investment.

Spatial and Uneven Inflows of Bitcoin Treasury Funds: Glassnode report points out that recent corporate fund inflows are mainly concentrated in individual event-driven transactions, rather than widespread fund accumulation. The chart below shows that buying is primarily strategy-driven, while other Bitcoin treasury companies have not made further purchases recently, a stark contrast to the period from May to August 2025 when multiple treasury companies coordinated their purchases, accelerating the trend.

Furthermore, a harsh phenomenon can be observed: Bitcoin has fallen from a high of $126,000 to its current price of $88,000, a drop of approximately 30%; however, Strategy (MSTR)'s stock price has plummeted from a high of $457 in July of last year to approximately $160 currently, a drop of a staggering 65%, meaning Strategy's decline is almost twice that of Bitcoin. The leverage that was a powerful tool during the initial upward trend has become an "accelerator" for the stock price crash during this downward cycle.

MSTR Premium Reset and Three Endgames

After experiencing a double correction in both stock price and premium, the core question facing investors is: Is Strategy's current MSTR stock price of $160 a buying opportunity, or the beginning of another crash?

A key indicator is Strategy's mNAV performance relative to its Bitcoin holdings.

At the end of 2024, the market was willing to pay a premium of up to 2.4 times to hold MSTR; however, with the recent stock price decline of over 60%, this premium has shrunk significantly to 1.07 times. From a valuation perspective, this means that the emotional bubble in the market has been significantly squeezed, and the current stock price is very close to its asset floor, providing a more cost-effective entry point for long-term Bitcoin bulls. However, Strategy's debt risk cannot be ignored. As of early 2026, the company's perpetual preferred equity reached $8.36 billion, exceeding its $8.21 billion convertible debt. While this conversion eliminates the refinancing pressure of maturing debt, it also brings continuous cash outflows. Strategy currently holds approximately $2.25 billion in cash reserves, while its annual dividend and interest obligations are approximately $876 million. At the current rate of expenditure, the company has approximately two and a half years of financial buffer. A more critical test will come in September 2027, when the $1.01 billion "sell option" on its 2028 notes may require a cash payment, depending on the share price performance at that time.

At the same time, we can combine Forbes' views to summarize the following three scenarios for the future market:

Scenario 1 (Basic Assumption): If Bitcoin maintains a sideways trend between $85,000 and $100,000, the market will enter a period of patience testing.

Scenario 1 (Basic Assumption): If Bitcoin maintains a sideways trend between $85,000 and $100,000, the market will enter a period of patience testing.

Scenario 3 (Pessimistic Expectation): This is the scenario most feared by critics like Peter Schiff. If the price of Bitcoin falls below $80,000, or even approaches the average cost line of $76,000, the company will find it difficult to maintain its buying power through low-cost financing tools; more seriously, the accumulated dividends from perpetual preferred shares will also face enormous financial pressure, potentially triggering a vicious cycle where asset value and financing capacity mutually undermine each other.

Market "consensus" is in a fragile period; whether or not to go long depends on investors' risk appetite.

Should we go long on Strategy (MSTR) now?

The argument for going long is that the premium has been reset (mNAV has dropped from a high of $2.4 to $1.07), and the risk has been largely released. If one agrees that Bitcoin below $100,000 represents a serious "value mismatch," then Strategy is the best leverage to amplify profits. A more conservative view is that macroeconomic policy uncertainty, geopolitical turmoil, continued outflows from ETFs, and corporate hesitancy indicate that market consensus is fragile. Strategy alone cannot withstand the overall macroeconomic pull; it may only provide a floor. Ultimately, the answer depends on the investor's risk appetite. For those who believe gold will eventually prevail, this is an entry opportunity after the premium has been reduced; however, for those seeking stability, remaining neutral may be a more rational choice until Wall Street institutions resume net inflows.