Industry executives warn: Bitcoin bear market has begun

Author: Ma Lan; Source: Cailianshe Silicon Valley NEWS

Before and after US President Trump took office, cryptocurrencies experienced an epic rise, but this trend has paused in recent weeks, with Bitcoin prices falling from an all-time high of $109,000 to around $83,000 currently.

Recently, some industry insiders are concerned that Bitcoin's bull market has reversed. Ki Young Ju, founder of cryptocurrency research firm CryptoQuant, is one of the crypto executives who holds a pessimistic view.

He posted on X that the Bitcoin bull market has lost momentum due to declining market liquidity, and it is expected that prices will continue to fall or go sideways in the next 6 to 12 months.

He pointed out that there was no new capital inflow on the chain, BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF had also seen outflows for three consecutive weeks, and even with huge trading volumes, Bitcoin prices had barely moved in recent days. If there is no new liquidity to offset the massive sell-off, this would be a clear bearish signal.

CryptoQuant also pointed out in a recent report that Bitcoin could return to the $63,000 mark, and key indicators show that Bitcoin's current trend is consistent with a deeper adjustment or the beginning of a bear market.

Recently, several crypto industry analysts have warned that continued weakness in the U.S. stock market could exacerbate bearish pressure on the cryptocurrency market amid economic uncertainty and global tensions.

Well-known crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen also claimed that the historical correlation between Bitcoin and Federal Reserve policy shows that the token may repeat the decline in 2019. In 2019, the Fed continued to conduct quantitative tightening, which is very similar to the direction of the current cycle. He added that the Atlanta Fed recently released a forecast of negative GDP in the first quarter of the United States. If this expectation is combined with concerns such as inflation and tariffs, it is not difficult to find that the bull market momentum of Bitcoin has disappeared. CryptoQuant analysts set the bull market support level of Bitcoin at between $75,000 and $78,000. Polymarket bettors believe that there is a 51% probability that Bitcoin will be priced between $81,000 and $87,000 by the end of this week, and a 31% probability of reaching $75,000 by the end of the month. Others have analyzed that historically, Bitcoin bull markets usually last 742 to 1,065 days, about 2 to 3 years. In contrast, bear markets last 364 to 413 days, about a year. Due to the rapid growth of Bitcoin's market value, each bull market cycle is weaker than the previous bull market.

In addition, Bitcoin prices generally plummet by 77% to 86% after the bull market turns to bear market. Considering this recurring trend, some people believe that the end point of this round of Bitcoin adjustment will be around $40,000.