How the Hong Kong trial of offshore RMB stablecoins breaks out

Hong Kong's Stablecoin Ordinance officially came into effect on May 30. Prior to this, on May 20, the United States passed the "Guiding and Establishing a National Innovation Act for Stablecoins in the United States" (GENIUS Act). It is no coincidence that the two came one after another. Behind them is the reshaping of rules and strategic preemption under the international competition of digital currencies.

Facing the trend of global digital asset regulation from disorderly initiation to rule formation, Hong Kong responded quickly and built a legal closed loop in the institutional vacuum, which may indicate that the trial of offshore RMB (CNH) stablecoin is approaching - the digital path of RMB internationalization is becoming clearer and more feasible.

CNH stablecoin has not yet been launched, but the entry into force of the Stablecoin Ordinance has opened up institutional imagination space for it. If Hong Kong takes the lead in piloting CNH stablecoin, it may open up a new digital path for RMB internationalization and become a key fulcrum for the reconstruction of the future cross-border payment system.

Whether it is a historical mirror, an institutional breakthrough, or the actual demand for the digital upgrade of RMB internationalization, the reshaping effect of stablecoins in cross-border payments cannot be ignored. As a modern monetary tool that integrates monetary attributes and international payment functions, stablecoins are not only an indispensable infrastructure in the digital economy era, but can even become a tool for rule-based gaming.

Do you still remember the personal RMB business pilot launched in Hong Kong in 2003?

It was that pilot that laid the institutional foundation for RMB cross-border trade settlement in 2009. Today, Hong Kong is once again at the watershed of RMB internationalization. CNH stablecoin may become the next breakthrough in digital finance and usher in the 2.0 era of the "Hong Kong experience".

The core experience of the successful pilot that year was the "regulatory closed loop + market-oriented transmission" mechanism: the mainland used Bank of China (Hong Kong) as a clearing hub to transmit regulatory requirements to the Hong Kong banking system in the form of commercial agreements, which both respected market autonomy and ensured system security. This hierarchical regulatory framework may provide a realistic and feasible reference for today's stablecoin experiments.

Today, the Stablecoin Ordinance reserves policy space for the inclusion of non-Hong Kong dollar legal currencies such as the RMB as anchor currencies through flexible clauses, but the specific implementation requires case-by-case approval by the HKMA. Currently, only the issuance of Hong Kong dollar stablecoins is subject to mandatory supervision. Hong Kong is exploring the integration of the RTGS (real-time gross payment) system and on-chain clearing. Its "regulatory sandbox + hierarchical openness" model consolidates the innovative advantages of digital currency through controllable trial and error.

If the CNH stablecoin is regarded as an institutional incision for the internationalization of the RMB, it may not only supplement the CIPS (Cross-Border Payment System for RMB), but also build a RMB channel independent of the SWIFT (International Funds Settlement System) system. In the technological race of the global payment network, Hong Kong is trying to build a digital "outlet" for the RMB.

This direction has been confirmed by policy signals. On May 19, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, said at a symposium on financial support for the real economy: "We will promote the international use of RMB in an orderly manner and improve the level of trade and investment and financing facilitation." This latest statement on the internationalization of RMB may reflect the further refinement of policy orientation and emphasize the practical application of RMB in specific scenarios.

At present, the internationalization of RMB faces challenges such as insufficient efficiency of cross-border payments and fragmented liquidity in the offshore market, and stablecoins are expected to provide solutions. For example, efficiency leaps - settlement costs can be reduced to 1/10 of traditional systems, and transaction time is shortened from T+1 to real-time, which is especially suitable for small and medium-sized trade in the "Belt and Road" initiative; for example, liquidity optimization - automatic redemption through smart contracts can improve the utilization rate of the 1.2 trillion yuan offshore RMB pool; another example is the ability to avoid geopolitics - stablecoins do not rely on SWIFT and are expected to build a new clearing infrastructure outside the US dollar financial network.

Based on the experience of the RMB business pilot in 2003, the implementation of CNH stablecoin can be promoted in three stages:

First, sandbox test (2025-2026): Chinese licensed institutions will pilot the issuance of CNH stablecoin for trade scenarios in the Greater Bay Area; Second, regional expansion (2026-2027): access to cross-border projects such as mBridge (Multilateral Central Bank Digital Currency Bridge), covering regional settlements such as RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement), and pilot RWA (Real World Asset) applications such as bond tokenization; Third, global promotion (from 2028): jointly with international organizations such as the IMF (International Monetary Fund) to formulate technical and regulatory standards, and promote CNH stablecoin to become a regional commodity pricing tool.

22 years ago, Hong Kong opened up a "test field" for the cross-border circulation of RMB; today, can it once again take the lead in the great changes in digital currency? The answer depends on two aspects: one is whether the synergy mechanism of "regulatory penetration + market choice" can be successfully replicated; the other is whether the strategic window for rule reshaping and financial infrastructure construction can be seized.

If successful, the CNH stablecoin will not only be a new channel for the internationalization of the RMB, but it is also likely to become a digital paradigm for China's institutional opening. It is not only a digital bridge for the RMB to move towards the international, but also a key step for China to seize the initiative in the reconstruction of the global monetary order.

From personal RMB accounts to smart contract stablecoins, Hong Kong is changing, the world is changing, and the path of RMB internationalization is also changing accordingly. What has not changed is the logic of institutional opening: promoting "soft connectivity" through rule docking and activating "strategic initiative" through technical experiments. Hong Kong is taking the "Stablecoin Ordinance" as a starting point and trying to give a Chinese answer in the big test of digital finance.