On April 16, Singapore, as part of its second annual Client Service Season, Hengyouhui officially launched its latest flagship report—The 2025 H1 Global Economic Outlook and Asset Allocation Strategy Report (hereinafter referred to as the “Global Strategy”)—at a high-level investor study tour event titled “Discovering the Wealth Management Path in Singapore.” The report was unveiled and interpreted by Dr. Zong Liang, Chief Researcher of the Bank of China, marking the first-ever global debut of a Hengyouhui strategy report outside China.
This release not only signals the full internationalization of Hengyouhui’s investment research system, but also highlights the company’s long-term commitment to serving high-net-worth clients with a global perspective and deep strategic foresight.
As the 14th consecutive annual report since 2018, the Global Strategy reviews the performance of global and Chinese markets in 2024 and provides a forward-looking analysis of macroeconomic trends, policy directions, and asset allocation strategies for the first half of 2025. It offers actionable, adaptive insights to help investors manage volatility and identify long-term value.
Global Landscape Reshaped: Risks Rise with Policy Conflicts
According to the report, the global economy remains under pressure in 2025, with the IMF forecasting growth around 3.3%. The onset of the “Trump 2.0” era—marked by a renewed “America First” policy—has sparked fresh trade tensions and volatility in global financial markets.
The U.S. is expected to implement a mix of high tariffs, deregulation, and tax cuts, potentially dragging growth down to 2.3% and pushing inflation to 2.5%. Meanwhile, moderate recoveries are expected in the Eurozone and Japan. Emerging markets, driven by innovation and industrial transformation, are poised for more resilient growth.
China, in particular, continues to demonstrate strong economic resilience. The report estimates 2025 GDP growth will stabilize around 5%, supported by recovering domestic demand, dual momentum from manufacturing and infrastructure investment, and accelerated deployment of emerging industries.
Monetary Easing Resonance: Policy Shifts Drive Market Divergence
With inflation still a concern and economic momentum softening, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to slow the pace of rate cuts, possibly lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4% by mid-2025. China, in contrast, is likely to implement more flexible monetary tools to inject liquidity and stabilize expectations.
The Global Strategy highlights a clear divergence in asset performance. On equities, A-shares are well-positioned for structural upside due to low valuations and fiscal support, while U.S. stocks face elevated volatility amid policy uncertainty. In bonds, China’s rates may continue a gradual downtrend, whereas U.S. Treasuries face rising volatility risks. Commodities offer selective opportunities—gold remains a preferred hedge, copper holds long-term potential, and oil poses short-term risks.
In the FX space, the U.S. dollar remains strong but volatile, while the renminbi faces short-term pressure. However, with a sound economic foundation and sufficient policy tools, China is expected to avoid large-scale depreciation. Dr. Zong recommends a strategy anchored on the U.S. dollar with dynamic renminbi hedging.
Private Equity Enters the “Matrix Era”: Reframing Growth with N.E.X.T
To address the limitations of traditional “track-based” investment logic in today’s fast-evolving tech cycle, the Global Strategy introduces a new framework: the N.E.X.T Matrix, designed to help investors identify the next exponential growth opportunity:
N – Necessary: Foundational science investments (e.g., gene editing, advanced materials) that represent future technology breakthroughs
E – Evolutionary: Application-layer innovations such as AI, renewable energy, and commercial spaceflight with scalable commercialization prospects
X – Xover: Cross-disciplinary convergence fostering new markets, including AI-powered healthcare and digitalized smart manufacturing
T – Transformative: Socioeconomic transformation opportunities such as aging-related services and sustainable consumption
According to Dr. Zong, N.E.X.T is more than an upgraded investment model—it is a strategic tool for navigating uncertainty and positioning ahead of macro shifts. This framework is especially timely as China transitions from its 14th Five-Year Plan to the early phases of its 15th.
Strategic Vision Amid Uncertainty: Building Resilience in Global Allocation
“In times of uncertainty, those who read the trend win the future.”
By releasing the Global Strategy in Singapore, Hengyouhui once again demonstrates its core philosophy: combining risk-aware allocation with long-term conviction. It offers deep research to support rational decision-making and sharp insights to uncover structural opportunities.
Looking ahead, Hengyouhui will continue to enhance its global research capabilities and professional service system, working hand-in-hand with investors to build resilience, embrace transformation, and navigate the future of global asset allocation.
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