Author: AndyO；Source: X，@andyz8818576155
The Iran war has not officially ended, but the nature of the war has changed from the moment US warships entered the fray and effectively blockaded the waterways related to the Hormuz.
It is shifting from "military strikes" to "forcing Iran to surrender."
The market direction will be determined by whether Iran will be forced to accept an extremely undignified agreement after losing the leverage of the Hormuz.
The next factor to determine the market direction is:
II. The driving force for peace is strengthening.
Although a final agreement is unlikely to be signed directly in the short term, the underlying forces driving the situation toward "limited peace" are indeed rising.
1. The economic pressure within Iran is no longer just ordinary difficulty, but is close to being out of control.
The strongest driving force for peace now is not the US-led TACO, nor European pressure, but rather Iran itself is on the verge of collapse.
The Central Bank of Iran has warned that if the fighting continues, inflation will surge to 180%, unemployment will increase by 2 million, and the economy will regress by more than a decade.
For any regime, once the internal economic order begins to collapse, so-called toughness will ultimately have to give way to maintaining stability.
2.
Joy
