Fragmentation: Numerous stablecoins operate across different blockchains, requiring complex bridging and conversions. This fragmentation has led to a reliance on automated bots for arbitrage and liquidity management, which account for nearly 85% of trading volume (organic volume 5 trillion, with a total transaction volume of $30 trillion). Infrastructure Scalability: To achieve widespread adoption, the underlying technology must be able to handle massive transaction volumes. In 2024, stablecoin transactions will reach approximately 6 billion, with ACH transactions approximately an order of magnitude higher and card transactions two orders of magnitude higher. Economic/Capital Efficiency: Currently, banks drive economic growth by expanding the money supply by lending many times their reserves. Widespread stablecoin use would divert banks' reserves, significantly reducing their lending capacity and directly impacting their profitability. Immediate challenges facing stablecoins—issuer credibility, regulatory ambiguity, compliance/fraud, and fragmentation—are similar to those faced by early privately issued banknotes. 192);">The large-scale adoption of fully-reserve stablecoins would not only disrupt the banking and financial sectors but also upend the current economic system.Commercial banks issue credit, currency, and liquidity to support economic growth; central banks monitor and influence this process through monetary policy, directly managing inflation and indirectly pursuing other policy goals such as employment, economic growth, and welfare.A large transfer of reserves from banks to stablecoin issuers could reduce the supply of credit and increase its cost. This would suppress economic activity, potentially lead to deflationary pressures, and pose a challenge to the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation.
Stablecoins offer significant advantages to users, especially in cross-border transactions. Competition will drive innovation, expand use cases, and stimulate growth. Higher transaction volumes and the adoption of more stablecoin wallets could lead to fewer deposits, fewer loans, and lower profitability for traditional banks. As regulation improves, we may see the emergence of a fractional reserve stablecoin model, blurring the lines between them and commercial bank money and further intensifying competition in the payments sector.
The Innovator's Dilemma
Today, institutions and individuals face two choices: either choose familiar and low-risk stablecoins or... Payment service providers face a choice too. They can either choose traditional payment systems that are risky but slow and costly, or modern payment systems that are fast, cheap, convenient, and constantly improving, but come with new risks. More and more people are choosing modern payment systems.
Payment service providers also face a choice. They can view these innovations as niche markets that do not affect the core customer base of traditional finance, and focus on incremental improvements to existing products and systems. Or, they can leverage their brands, regulatory experience, customer base, and networks to lead the new era of payments. By embracing new technologies and forming strategic partnerships, they can meet changing customer expectations and drive growth.
Improving payments through evolution, not revolution
The path to the next generation of payments—global, 24/7, multi-currency, and programmable—is available, and It does not require reinventing money, only reimagining the infrastructure. Commercial bank money and sound traditional financial supervision can address the stability, regulatory clarity, and capital efficiency issues of the existing financial system. Google Cloud provides the necessary infrastructure upgrades. Google Cloud Universal Ledger (GCUL) is a new platform designed to build innovative payment services and financial market products. It 192);">Simplify the management of commercial bank currency accounts and facilitate transfers through distributed ledgers, allowing financial institutions and intermediaries to meet the needs of their most discerning customers and compete effectively. GCUL is designed to be simple, flexible, and secure. Let's break it down:
Simple: GCUL is provided as a service and accessible through a single API, simplifying the integration of multiple currencies and assets. It eliminates the need to build and maintain infrastructure. Transaction fees are stable, transparent, and billed monthly (unlike the volatile prepaid cryptocurrency gas fees).
Flexible: GCUL offers unparalleled performance and is scalable to any use case. It is programmable, enabling payment automation and digital asset management. It can be integrated with the wallet of your choice.
Secure: GCUL is designed with regulatory compliance in mind (e.g., KYC verified accounts, outsourcing of regulatory transaction fees). GCUL is a private and permissioned system (which may become more open as regulations evolve) that leverages Google’s Safe, reliable, durable and privacy-focused technology.
GCUL offers significant advantages to both customers and financial institutions. Customers experience near-instant transactions, especially for cross-border payments, with the added benefit of low fees, 24/7 service and payment automation. Financial institutions, on the other hand, benefit from reduced infrastructure and operating costs due to the elimination of reconciliation steps, reduced errors, simplified compliance processes and reduced fraud. This frees up resources for financial institutions to develop modern products. Financial institutions can leverage their existing advantages, such as customer networks, licenses and regulatory processes, to maintain full control over customer relationships.
Payments are a catalyst for capital markets
Similar to payments, capital markets have undergone significant changes due to the adoption of electronic systems. Electronic trading initially encountered resistance but ultimately revolutionized the industry. Real-time prices Information and wider access have led to increased liquidity, resulting in faster execution, lower spreads and lower costs per trade. This, in turn, has spurred further growth in market participants (particularly individual investors), product and strategy innovation, and overall market volume. Despite a significant decline in the price per trade, the industry has expanded significantly with advances in electronic trading, algorithmic trading, market making, risk management, data analytics and more.
However, payment challenges remain. Limitations of traditional payment systems result in settlement cycles lasting several days, which require working capital and collateral for risk management. Digital assets and new market structures enabled by distributed ledger technology are hindered by inherent friction in connecting traditional and new infrastructure. Independent asset and payment systems exacerbate fragmentation and complexity, preventing the industry from fully benefiting from these innovations.
Google Cloud Universal Ledger The Google Cloud (GCUL) addresses these challenges by providing a streamlined, secure platform for managing the entire digital asset lifecycle (e.g., bonds, funds, and collateral). GCUL enables seamless and efficient issuance, management, and settlement of digital assets. Its atomic settlement capability minimizes risk and enhances liquidity, unlocking new opportunities in the capital markets. We are exploring how to transfer value using a secure medium of exchange provided by a regulated institution and backed by bankruptcy-protected assets (e.g., central bank deposits or money market funds). These initiatives foster true 24/7 capital mobility and drive the next wave of financial innovation.
The time to act is now
The future of finance is digital, but it doesn't have to be fragmented or expensive. Google Cloud's Universal Ledger provides an easily integrated, scalable, secure, and efficient solution. Built on a partnership model, it complements existing business models, not competes with them. This design enables our partners in financial services and capital markets to create value for their customers and drive innovation.