From DeepSeek to peer-to-peer tariffs, Web3 won’t end

Source: Zuoye Waiboshan

Let the little whale fly, and fly out $TRUMP

We drink from the golden cup together, and we will not spare each other with swords. Everyone regards Trump and Milley as the international right-wing alliance, but the appearance of issuing currency one after another makes this convertible alliance look quite abstract.

Then on Valentine's Day, Chuan Bao sent equal tariffs to the world, but it was obviously discounted. It was obviously not until April that it would really take effect, but the news was released in advance, waiting for the parties to negotiate the conditions themselves, and directly made cards out of thin air.

Faced with Mile’s international fraud, no one had expected Trump to issue his own currency before, so on Mile’s side, people forgot the lesson of the one-day tour of the President of Central Africa’s celebrity currency, or because Mile’s main focus is liberalism, he has a large audience in the currency circle, and in the end, he didn’t expect that the people who love you will hurt you the most.

Back to the impact of DeepSeek, currently companies in China, the United States, and Europe are all accessing it. The most difficult thing to collapse is that American capitalists call on the US government to impose sanctions and bans, which is actually very uncapitalist, and is closer to industrial policy, which is the opposite of Tiangang.

Although no one expected DS to launch an open source + cheap technology surprise attack, because the stereotype has always been that domestic industries are not good at open source and originality, but only good at plagiarism and landing, but this time it has basically changed the existing impression, but OpenAI may re-choose the open source route under the influence.

In essence, because the United States is actually deindustrialized, only the high valuation of the financial industry maintains the international purchasing power of the US dollar, resulting in all current technologies and products eventually becoming financial miracles to prove the superiority of the United States.

From DeepSeek to reciprocal tariffs, we can predict Trump's main trends in the next four years in advance. There is no doubt that the general direction of financialization is impossible to re-industrialize, but there is the courage to make money in the name of re-industry, and it is very big.

Because DeepSeek has been here, the AI ​​narrative is temporarily bankrupt

In the DeepSeek incident, Trump first praised, then banned, and then praised again, performing a hat trick-like performance, but in the latest news from Bloomberg, the valuation given for DeepSeek is between 1 billion and 155 billion, which is about half of OpenAI's valuation, which can become the Pengte valuation system.

However, with the current situation where American capital has joined in, DeepSeek will seriously interfere with Trump's thinking by highlighting the principle of "who doesn't love free things", because Trump's reciprocal tariff policy is essentially a political weapon rather than an economic means.

In Trump's cognition, because other countries can enjoy "most favored nation" treatment, the United States needs to lower tariffs on national products entering the United States, but American products entering other countries will face higher tariffs.

But in fact, this is the inevitable consequence of the United States' choice of financial country building and the internationalization of the US dollar. If the United States does not maintain a trade deficit, other countries will not be able to obtain US dollars for transactions. In view of this, combined with the latest statement of the Federal Reserve, we will need to see Powell's management of expectations on interest rate hikes and cuts for quite some time. But in reality, it will be like the housing prices in the big oriental country, which can neither rise nor fall.

Back to the subsequent price prediction of Web3, the following four basic cognitions need to be established, otherwise it will feel that Meme and BNB Chain will be the main theme in the future, but this is not the case at all:

1. The U.S. stock market needs to find a new support point. What the U.S. stock market says, the currency circle will say, and the currency circle has no independent market conditions;
   

2. Funds are now on various ETFs, and there is basically no spillover of funds in the circle, but mainly because there is no technical narrative support. Pure Meme PVP cannot attract long-term funds to participate in the game;
   

3. Next, let's look at the U.S. stock market, ETF, DeepSeek response (new AI algorithms, new directions of embodied intelligence, new directions of biotechnology), Ondo+BlackRock, government, traditional finance or government on the chain
   

With Nvidia's market value returning to 3 trillion, the U.S. stock market has basically emerged from the DeepSeek impact, GPT and Google Both have released new products, but the market response is mediocre. Although they have survived by chance, they need to find new hot spots to save AI and computing power valuation leverage.

Overall, I am still positive about the US stock market and the cryptocurrency circle. Musk is putting government information and funds on the chain. If it is on Ethereum or Solana, it will be a new super market. If you make a consortium chain yourself, it will be nothing fun.

Web3 will not fall because of Meme

Under the impact of DeepSeek, the Web3 AI Agent narrative has reached a stage of bankruptcy. After the Meme PVP mechanism was drained of all liquidity by the three consecutive hits of $TRUMP/MELANIA/LIBRA, it has now come to a boring second-hand time stage.

CZ still maintains influence on Binance, such as TST listing on Binance and criticizing Binance's listing policy, but after all, under the supervision of the US Department of Justice, Binance, Labs and BNB Chain are completely separated, and the process from investment, incubation to listing is broken up.I have always believed that Binance's regulation is the real reason for the bankruptcy of the VC coin narrative, or at least the starting point of the dominoes.

Binance has spent several years to take the entire process of chip establishment and final distribution into its bag. The strongest liquidity leads to the largest listing increase, and the largest listing increase leads to the project party's willingness to discount to Labs and BNB holders. This process continues in a cycle, and eventually creates the strongest Web3 wealth group.

But now these conditions no longer exist:

• BN, BN Labs and BNB Chain are actually separated, and the project parties of BNB Chain and Labs cannot obtain more reliable coin listing commitments;

• With the strong rise of DEX, BN main site and other CEX are at risk of becoming the only way for token exit, and simply improving the coin listing process is only a temporary solution;

• The hidden worry of VC coins is the staged bankruptcy of the technical narrative, and it is difficult to maintain long-term effects on the BNB Chain that dominates Meme/DeSci/AI Agent.

However, there is no need to worry too much. Web3 has no other benefits. Its robustness is as strong as ever. The next real impact is that more Altcoin ETFs will gradually pass after BTC/ETH, and continue to absorb the liquidity that should have entered the PVP circle. At a time when neither VC coins nor Meme coins can be maintained, the big question is where the currency circle will go.

In other words, you can choose not to engage in the existing high FDV and low liquidity model of VC coins, and you can't choose not to play Meme and honestly engage in Buidl, but you must have new ideas. From the lessons of the two crises in 2017/2021, Web3 will always find a new paradigm, but anyone who holds the imprint of the past will be left behind.

Under the CEX crisis represented by Binance, the opportunity for DEX has actually arrived, but Jupiter's performance and controversy, although Solana is faster, is indeed not as robust as the ETH ecosystem. Before February, the FUD ETH sentiment had already reached its peak. Things will turn around when they reach their extremes. The currency circle changes too fast, making people overly anxious, but in fact, it is really unnecessary.

Conclusion

It is natural to get rid of the old and bring in the new. At a time when macroeconomic policies are full of uncertainty, the continuous construction of DEX has proved to us that CEX, which was once considered a necessary and irreplaceable evil, can really be challenged. This time it is indeed not a technology-led innovation like ETH ZK L2, but more of a combination of product ideas and existing technologies. However, the success of DeepSeek has proved that engineering progress is a necessary path for the large-scale diffusion of technology.

BTC, which was once the king and the queen, has flown into the homes of ordinary people.