Ethereum DAT Treasury Strategy: When will it sell ETH?

Author: 0xTodd Source: X, @0x_Todd

Good Ending 1 - Cashing in

When the price of crypto assets significantly exceeds their investment cost, they cash out under shareholder/tax requirements, although the transfer address will slightly affect the floating profit.

WeiCe previously transferred some coins to "optimize taxes," which did not result in a settlement or a market crash. But given their capital scale—it doesn't matter. Selling at 6,000 for an average cost of 3,000 is already a great deal for large investors. If they make enough money, it's human nature to replicate their own success. Those who started with Ethereum DAT might try to invest in other altcoins in the future, and at this point, they might switch gears. Normal Ending 1 - Hedge and Sell If they believe their holdings are nearing their ceiling, they will stop buying and even prepare to sell. Even if their on-chain addresses are transparent, this doesn't prevent them from discreetly hedging through contracts and options, thus retaining a small portion of their gains. Normal Ending 2 - No Buyers If mNAV remains below 1 for an extended period, the company will conclude that continuing to issue additional shares is unprofitable, and may therefore sell some tokens to appropriately boost mNAV. In my experience, of all the anchors in the world, only the "two-way guaranteed redemption anchor" is effective. No project can be anchored solely by "psychological anchors." Bad Ending 1 - Financial Pressure For example, Tesla in 2022 was forced to sell three-quarters of its Bitcoin holdings due to financial pressure. These institutions may face similar financial pressures at some point in the future. Bad Ending 2 - Stop Loss If the opposite action is taken, the cost of establishing the position will be significantly higher than the current price, and the entire game will be unsustainable. At some point, you will have no choice but to stop loss and try to recover through a lower bottom. Of course, these are just long-term speculations about the final outcome and do not mean I am bearish or negative on DAT in the near term. While the drumbeat continues, we should keep playing and dancing. As for when the drumbeat will stop? That’s what I’ll share in the next post, focusing on three key indicators: cost of building a position, CEO/CFO/board changes, and mNAV being below 1 for a long time.