Embracing the shift: Key indicators signal coming market changes

Author: Digital Asset Research Source: substack Translation: Shan Ouba, Golden Finance

This past week felt like a bear market for me, and I'm sure many of you feel the same way. Yes, cryptocurrency prices fell, but more importantly, the market atmosphere is very boring right now.

However, with the change of seasons and the Gann time factor we are dealing with, I think all this will change soon. If you haven't watched our Wednesday update yet, I suggest you watch it here.

Otherwise, let's get straight to the point, because my feeling has not changed.

First, let's take a look at the stock market.

Be prepared to buy on a pullback here. As you can see, we have two symmetrical uptrends. Each trend is 20 calendar days (not trading days), which is exactly 310 points. Therefore, the two symmetrical trends in time and price coincide with the red line marking the 150-degree date of the SPY IPO. There is an arrow on the red line indicating that this is the date of the last degree calculation, and you can also see that this is a short-term high.

We also noticed that many people pointed out that the RSI of QQQ is at a historical high.  

All of this is consistent with the natural date of the Summer Solstice. This tells us to be ready for a trend change. The good news is that our election cycle seasonality still tells us that the market has room to run, as the above chart shows. We still have the next natural date on July 7th, which is a Sunday, but will perfectly coincide with the previous 10-day correction, and may reach a low near the next natural date if we correct here.

As for cryptocurrencies, the setup is almost exactly the same, but in the opposite direction.  

Again, our natural date comes tomorrow and it coincides with price. Note the daily RSI in the orange circle, these levels mark the lows. We also have a bullish reversal setup, if you look at the blue arrows, price is making higher lows while the RSI is making lower lows. This tells us that BTC is extremely oversold in the short term. Coupled with the fact that price is right at the intersection of the green 1/1 line up and the black 1/1 line down and close to our date, I think this is a significant low at least in the short term.

On the other hand, ETH is performing stronger than BTC

Again, I encourage you to watch Wednesday's video where I talked about signals and timing. As you can see, we are performing better than BTC and still holding a three-day time reversal. Therefore, if this market takes off, expect ETH to outperform.

Finally, let's review last week's teaching points.

Last week, I demonstrated how to find bottoms on several meme charts.

Below is last week’s TRUMP chart vs. actual results

As you can see, many meme charts look like this. The key is when the chart forms lower highs and then lower lows, panic will 100% occur. So don't buy on the second bounce, sell if it breaks below the low of the first correction. Another key point is to wait for the three leg decline to complete before buying. Then look for the signal candle.

Here is another great example. CHOMP of the current leading meme BASE.  

I can almost guarantee that it will retest the $0.25 level. It breaks down, forming lower highs and then lower lows. There will be panic. Buy at this time.

This is important because many charts look like this and many people keep trying to guess and buy the bottom. Forget it. In fact, the bottom is easier to spot if you know this. Wait for a three leg down and then wait for the signal candle. You now have a safer way to buy the bottom. Stop guessing.

So while I am optimistic about a rally in the coming days/weeks, be wary of buying into charts like this. TRUMP will be a good one to study because of the upcoming debate. To me, it looks like it needs one last leg down, so the key will be to see if it can make a higher high during the upcoming debate week, if not, then there will be panic buying.

It's that simple, for those altcoins that have been falling for weeks, zoom in to the weekly chart and look for a three leg down structure and then wait for the signal candle on the weekly chart. This will be safer than trying to buy the bottom.

Overall, I think we are at a turning point. Be prepared for a rally, but don't bet everything on it. We remain in a very difficult and volatile market which will likely continue into August.