Source: Cycle Trading
BitDeer (Btdr.US) released its first quarter report for fiscal year 2025. The company achieved operating income of US$70.1 million in the first quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 41.3% and a month-on-month increase of 1.6%. Among them, the self-operated business income was US$37.2 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%; the comprehensive gross profit was negative US$3.2 million, and the gross profit margin was -4.6%, mainly due to the increase in electricity prices during the dry season in Bhutan, and the short-term closure of the Bhutan mine by Btdr. However, after entering the flood season in the second quarter, the electricity price has returned to the level of US$0.042/kwh; Seal mining machine sales of US$4.1 million marked the official start of the company's mining machine sales. The adjusted EBITDA was negative US$56.1 million, compared with positive US$27.3 million in the same period of 2024. Net profit was $410 million, mainly due to the fair value reversal of convertible notes ($448.7 million) and TEDA options ($58.4 million) in the fourth quarter of 2024.
1. Xiaolu 25's prepaid accounts further increased to $382 million in the first quarter (US$310 million in the fourth quarter of 2024), and the amount required for the maximum tape-out that can be obtained has been fully covered. Seal02 mining machine has entered the shipment stage. The subsequent self-operation and sales rhythm will depend on the pricing strategy of competitors. If the competition is fierce, priority will be given to lighting up the self-operated mine. Seal03 mining machine also completed the tape-out in the first quarter and is still in the testing stage. It is expected that the layout and sales stage of the self-operated mine will be officially entered in the fourth quarter of the third quarter of 2025.
2. Regarding the US tariff war. Xiaolu will complete the construction of the North American assembly plant in the second quarter, and the sales in North America will come from localized assembly. Although the cost has increased by nearly 10%, it is negligible compared with the current Southeast Asian tariffs. The Southeast Asian assembly plant will meet the needs of mining farms in non-US regions.
3. Xiaolu's global power infrastructure construction remains rapid. It is expected that by the end of the second quarter, the global available power capacity will be close to 1.6GW, and will reach 1.8GW by the end of this year.
4. As of April, Xiaolu's self-operated mine hash has reached 12.5Eh/s, which is expected to rise to 40Eh/s in October and exceed 40Eh/s by the end of 25. The company's latest Seal01 and Seal02 mining machines were only put into operation in March, but the overall mining cost is still at least 20% lower than that of its peers (including Mara, CLSK, etc.). After fully replacing old mining machines, the cost advantage will be further revealed, and the monthly output will show an exponential upward trend starting from the second quarter.
Investment advice: Bitcoin prices have recently returned to an upward trend and are expected to break through the previous historical high of $109,000 per coin. Since the US trade war, the US dollar has been under pressure, and Bitcoin, as an alternative asset, has begun to show its gold-like safe-haven properties. The Federal Reserve has also recently begun to adopt an "average inflation" policy, and is expected to cut interest rates in June ahead of schedule. The expected rate cut for the whole year has been raised to three times (previously one time), which has provided positive support to the price of Bitcoin. After experiencing the operating transition period in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, BitDeer will usher in an important moment. The speed of mining machine development and the speed of self-operated mine lighting will be important highlights in the next few quarters. The operating conditions in the first quarter of 2025 should be the worst period in the next two years, and the operating turning point will also begin from then on. It is still the best choice for North American Bitcoin mining stocks.
Investment risks: Risk of further adjustment of Bitcoin prices, risk of TSMC wafers failing to meet expectations, and risk of the company's self-operated mining machine going online slower than expected.
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