Coin Metrics: Bitcoin ETF One Year Ahead

Currently, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows of approximately $32 billion, holding a total of over 1.1 million BTC, equivalent to $115 billion in assets under management. These holdings currently represent approximately 5.7% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin. In other words, this represents approximately 1% of the total assets under management of all ETFs worldwide, highlighting the huge growth potential ahead.

Source: Coin Metrics Labs

These Bitcoin ETFs target 3 major investor groups - individual investors, wealth advisors and institutional investors. 13F filings reveal the buyers behind the ETFs, which are primarily composed of retail and professional investors, including hedge funds and major financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Millennium Management. This reflects the growing interest in including Bitcoin in portfolios and the appeal of regulated ETF structures, which act as a bridge between the worlds of traditional finance and cryptocurrencies.

As revealed in our 2025 Outlook report, we expect capital inflows to accelerate in 2025, and the AUM of these ETFs could double as the easing of regulatory conditions leads to broader participation from channels such as pension funds, family offices, and endowments.

Grayscale's Transformation, BlackRock's Wealth

From the perspective of a single issuer, not all issuers perform equally. While BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has accumulated around 540,000 BTC, half of all BTC accumulated by ETFs, Grayscale’s GBTC holdings have fallen from over 600,000 to 200,000, dragging net flows down.

Source: Coin Metrics Labs

As of January 19, BlackRock's IBIT assets under management reached US$59 billion, with assets exceeding BlackRock iShares Gold ETF (IAU), further cementing Bitcoin’s status as “digital gold.” Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said IBIT reached the $50 billion AUM milestone in just 227 trading days, breaking the previous record of 1,323 days set by the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF.

Source: Coin Metrics Institutional Metrics, Grayscale

On the other hand, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which was once the main vehicle for gaining indirect Bitcoin exposure, has faced challenges after converting to an ETF. Investors sought out newly launched Bitcoin ETFs that offered expense ratios lower than Grayscale’s 1.5%. Additionally, a portion of GBTC’s assets were spun off into the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC), a low-cost alternative to its predecessor.

How Do ETFs Impact BTC Price and Market Structure?

By analyzing 12 months of data, we can begin to understand the interaction between spot Bitcoin ETF net flows and BTC prices. As a large and stable source of structural demand for BTC, spot ETFs have a measurable impact on price movements, albeit with some variation over time. The chart below shows that large inflows or outflows coincide with major price moves. However, this relationship is not consistent, as broader market conditions and investor sentiment play a role in addition to factors such as MicroStrategy’s market impact.