The origins of public blockchain networks can be traced back to the release of the Bitcoin whitepaper in 2008 and the creation of the genesis block in 2009. However, the conceptual foundations of blockchain have actually been gradually built over the decades since the 1970s. Despite this, the scope of blockchain applications in the financial and public sectors has been relatively limited so far.
The open source and decentralized nature of blockchain is rooted in a core belief that mathematics and code can guarantee privacy and freedom. From its cypherpunk origins, blockchain is not only a technological innovation, it is also highly political and essentially an anti-establishment philosophy that represents an opposition to existing institutions, whether banks or governments. Cypherpunks are a group of people who advocate the use of encryption and privacy-enhancing technologies to promote social and political change.
Public key cryptography first appeared in the mid-1970s, while hash functions and Merkle trees were born in the late 1970s. At the same time, the development of the modern Internet is also worth noting. In the 1980s, Arpanet began to adopt the TCP/IP protocol, and in the early 1990s, the World Wide Web was officially born. However, during the booming Internet in the 1990s, the important element of "Digital Money" was missing.
The Bitcoin white paper released in 2008 proposed the establishment of a "peer-to-peer electronic cash system". This concept was gradually implemented in the following years, and the use of Bitcoin has increased significantly. As of April 2025, Bitcoin is still one of the dominant cryptocurrencies in the crypto ecosystem, with a market share of 64%.
In the 2020s, the narrative around blockchain has undergone an almost 180-degree shift. The movement that was once anti-establishment has now gradually moved towards the mainstream. In 2023-2024, "real world asset tokenization (RWA)" becomes one of the dominant narratives in the crypto ecosystem. As of the end of March 2025, one of the largest holders of Bitcoin is the US Bitcoin ETF fund. In addition, other US institutions, including the US government, are also among the top ten holders of Bitcoin. In 2025, a few days before the inauguration of the 47th US President, the $TRUMP meme coin was launched on the Solana blockchain.
As a digital currency based on the blockchain network, stablecoins have great development potential. In recent years, the use of stablecoins has shown a rapid growth trend. It is expected that between 2025 and 2030, with the continuous improvement of regulatory transparency (especially in the United States), the use of stablecoins may further increase significantly.
In addition, public chains can also bring greater transparency and enhanced trust. Whether in rich or poor countries, public institutions are striving to improve their trust index, and these characteristics of public chains are exactly what they need. Blockchain adoption has been advancing with the evolution of regulation and the demand for transparency and accountability.
The above is a review of the history of blockchain in 2025. How should we look forward to the future of stablecoins and blockchain? Citi GPS’s latest research report "Digital Dollars——Banks and Public Sector Drive Blockchain Adoption" may give the answer, focusing on two key areas: new financial instruments (such as stablecoins), and the modernization of legacy systems.
Therefore, we have compiled this in more detail, and its discussion on the stablecoin GPT moment is very worth learning from.
Coincidentally, two years ago on May Day, we were also compiling Citi GPS's "Money, Tokens, and Games (Blockchain's Next Billion Users and Trillions in Value)", the subtitle of which is Blockchain's Next Billion Users and Trillions in Value.
In the 2023 report, Citi predicted that by 2030, Billion Users will come from: currency, social networking, and games. Looking back from 2025, except for the short-lived SocialFi and GameFi at the time, this gap will be filled by users holding cryptocurrencies or stablecoins, which is also the origin of Citi's 2025 stablecoin research report.
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Key Takeaways
Driven by regulatory changes, 2025 is likely to become the "ChatGPT" moment for blockchain applications in the financial and public sectors.
By 2030, the total circulating supply of stablecoins could grow to $1.6 trillion in our baseline scenario and $3.7 trillion in our optimistic scenario. Even so, this figure could be closer to $500 billion if challenges in application and integration persist.
We expect the supply of stablecoins to remain denominated in U.S. dollars (about 90%), while non-U.S. countries will promote central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in their own currencies.
The regulatory framework for stablecoins in the United States could drive net new demand for U.S. Treasuries, making stablecoin issuers one of the largest holders of U.S. Treasuries by 2030.
Stablecoins pose a certain threat to the traditional banking ecosystem through deposit substitution. But they may provide new service opportunities for banks/financial institutions.
The public sector’s use of blockchain is also gaining traction, thanks to the continued focus on transparency and accountability in public spending, as reflected in the U.S. government’s DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) initiative and blockchain pilot projects by central banks and multilateral development banks.
The main use cases for public sector blockchains include: expenditure tracking, subsidy distribution, public record management, humanitarian aid activities, asset tokenization, and digital identity.
While on-chain transaction volumes in the public sector may initially be small, and risks remain high and challenges are numerous, increased public sector interest may be an important signal for wider blockchain adoption.
Why 2025 could be the "ChatGPT moment" for blockchain applications in finance and the public sector?
The supportive stance of U.S. regulators toward blockchain is expected to be a game-changing year for the industry. This could lead to wider adoption of blockchain-based currencies and spur the emergence of other use cases in the U.S. private and public sectors in finance and other areas.
Another potential catalyst is the continued focus on transparency and accountability in public spending.
These changes build on developments over the past 12-15 months, including the EU’s regulated Market for Crypto-Assets (MiCA), growing user demand reflected in the issuance of cryptocurrency ETFs, the institutionalization of cryptocurrency trading and custody, and the U.S. government’s establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
While blockchain engagement among banks, asset managers, the public sector, and government agencies has increased, they still lag behind some of the more optimistic expectations. The reality is: digital finance already exists in consumer and institutional finance, including online banking on proprietary databases and centralized systems. We are now seeing an accelerated convergence of online native technologies, currencies, and blockchain and digital native use cases.
Government blockchain adoption falls into two categories: enabling new financial instruments and modernizing systems. Systems are upgraded by integrating shared ledgers to enhance data synchronization, transparency, and efficiency.
Stablecoins are currently the leading holders of U.S. Treasuries and are beginning to influence global financial flows. The growing popularity of stablecoins reflects the continued demand for dollar-denominated assets.
Artem Korenyuk, Digital Assets – Client, Citi
The main catalyst for wider acceptance of stablecoins, which are cryptocurrencies pegged to a stable asset such as the U.S. dollar, is likely to be regulatory clarity in the United States. This could allow stablecoins, and blockchain more broadly, to better integrate into the existing financial system.
Given the dollar’s dominant position in international finance, changes in the United States regarding stablecoins will impact the broader global system.
The U.S. government appears keen to promote the development of the onshore digital asset industry, which is one of its priorities to promote innovation and efficiency. In January 2025, the U.S. Presidential Executive Order titled “Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technologies” established a Digital Assets Task Force to develop a federal regulatory framework for the industry.
The growing integration of digital assets with existing financial institutions in a regulatory-friendly context sets the stage for the growth in stablecoin usage, further supported by macroeconomic factors such as demand for the U.S. dollar in emerging and frontier markets.
According to DefiLlama data, the total value of stablecoins exceeds $230 billion by the end of March 2025, 30 times what it was five years ago. This partly reflects the growth in the total value of cryptocurrencies (up 1,400% in the five years to the end of March 2025) and the growth in institutional demand. Our analysis suggests that the total supply of stablecoins could reach $1.6 trillion in a baseline scenario, with bear and bull scenarios reaching approximately $0.5 trillion to $3.7 trillion, respectively.
Demand for U.S. Treasuries: Establishing a U.S. regulatory framework for stablecoins would support demand for risk-free U.S. dollar assets both inside and outside the United States. Stablecoin issuers must purchase U.S. Treasuries or similar low-risk assets as a measure of their possession of safe underlying collateral. In the baseline scenario, we expect U.S. Treasury purchases to exceed $1 trillion. By 2030, the amount of U.S. Treasuries held by stablecoin issuers may exceed the total amount of any one jurisdiction today.
The development of stablecoins also faces resistance and challenges. While the dominance of the U.S. dollar may evolve over time, with the euro or other currencies driven by national regulations, many non-U.S. policymakers may view stablecoins as a tool of U.S. dollar hegemony.
The goal of blockchain is to bring money flows in line with the speed of the internet and global commerce. Stablecoins can be a key tool to achieve this goal. The first step is legislative and regulatory clarity. In addition, legal safeguards need to be in place.
Ryan Rugg, Digital Assets – Services, Citi
The geopolitical situation remains volatile. If the world continues to move toward a multipolar system, policymakers in China and Europe are likely to be keen to promote central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) or stablecoins issued in their own currencies. Policymakers in emerging and frontier markets will also be wary of local risks posed by dollarization.
Both stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are attempts to create digital currencies, but they differ in terms of technical architecture and governance. The issuer of a CBDC is the central bank, while private entities can issue stablecoins. CBDCs are often inspired by blockchain principles, but are not based on a public chain. Stablecoins could play the role of Eurodollar 2.0 given demand for USD for wholesale and financial transactions, especially in jurisdictions with high currency volatility.
As a result, we expect the stablecoin market to remain dominated by USD in the coming years. In our baseline scenario, we expect ~90% of stablecoin supply to be denominated in USD in 2030, although down from nearly 100% today.
Stablecoins are subject to run risk and could trigger contagion effects. In 2023, there were ~1,900 stablecoin depegs, of which ~600 were large stablecoins. Large depeg events could depress liquidity in crypto markets, trigger automatic liquidations, weaken redemption capabilities on exchanges, and could have broader contagion effects on the financial system. For example, in March 2023, news of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank triggered large redemptions of USDC.
A recent report from Galaxy Digital noted that Tether provided about $8 billion, or about 25% of the total crypto lending business, and pointed out that if Tether used depositors' funds to issue these loans, "it would violate some banking systems and face serious systemic risks."
Note: Tokenized deposits are tokenized representations of commercial deposits, each of which is backed by retail or institutional deposits. Deposit tokens are native tokens on the blockchain that directly represent retail or institutional deposits in token form. To date, most banking projects can be classified as "tokenized deposits." Deposit tokens are mostly in pilot or early stages, such as the Guardian Project, the Regulated Accountability Network (RLN) or the Helvetia Project.
Trust and transparency are essential to maintaining public support for governments and institutions.
Trust is the new currency for governments, and they need to build confidence and trust with their citizens. Governments can continue to use centralized databases and traditional software solutions, but may miss out on the fundamental change that blockchain will bring.
Saqr Ereiqa, Secretary General, Dubai Digital Asset Association
Blockchain introduces a decentralized approach to public sector data management that is based on trust. Whereas traditional systems derive trust from an authority – such as a government verifying its own records – blockchain allows for cryptographic proof of authenticity. Trust is rooted in the technology itself.
Blockchain’s immutability ensures that information cannot be altered once recorded, providing a tamper-proof record of sensitive public data such as land registries, voting systems, and financial transactions. While other technologies can also achieve immutability, they often require trusted parties to enforce it.
Cross-border activities, especially international payments through institutions such as the World Bank or humanitarian aid projects, are important use cases for blockchain. International financial flows can be opaque, making it difficult to effectively verify that resources are reaching the intended recipients. Blockchain can provide transparency for complex transactions, even in remote or unstable areas where financial institutions do not function well.
Building a blockchain in situations where a simple database is sufficient is like driving a Ferrari to the corner store - expensive, inefficient, and unnecessary. Blockchain does not have any real advantage if all inputs and outputs are controlled by a single entity. Its true value only becomes apparent when trust is required to exchange value.
Artem Korenyuk, Digital Assets – Client, Citi
A. Digital Trust Revolution
Siim Sikkut was the Chief Information Officer of the Estonian Government (2017-2022) and currently serves on the Digital Advisory Council to the President of Estonia. He is also the Managing Partner of Digital Nation.
Q: What prompted Estonia to adopt blockchain?
Estonia’s digital transformation was born out of necessity. As a small country with a population of just over a million, efficiency and productivity are of paramount importance. In the late 1990s, with the rise of the internet, Estonia began experimenting with digital solutions in government and banking.
These early initiatives demonstrated significant benefits, enabling the country to operate beyond its size and resource constraints. This success led to Estonia’s strategic commitment to digital innovation. Estonia took an iterative approach, testing emerging technologies, determining what worked, and scaling successful solutions. This approach led to groundbreaking initiatives such as online voting and e-residency, both of which started as experimental projects and have since become an integral part of Estonia’s digital infrastructure. Blockchain has followed a similar trajectory. Estonia’s adoption of blockchain was not in response to a crisis, but rather to ensure efficient digital governance.
Q: How is Estonia using blockchain in government operations? Why?
Estonia primarily uses blockchain to ensure data integrity in government systems. The key challenge is maintaining trust—ensuring that citizens can rely on the security and accuracy of their data. While encryption and cybersecurity help address confidentiality and availability issues, the government needs a solution to verify the integrity of its records.
The key question is: how can you trust system administrators and the log files they provide?
In the early 2000s, Estonia adopted a custom blockchain, KSI (Keyless Signature Infrastructure), as an additional trust layer. Today, it is used in various government databases, including the National Health Registry.
It is important to note that blockchain does not store the actual records, but metadata about when and who accessed or modified the records. For example, it does not store an individual's blood type, but records when and by whom the entry was accessed or modified. This approach has two key advantages. First, it ensures user privacy and regulatory compliance. Second, storing large data sets on-chain is impractical from a cost and performance perspective.
Q: What potential use cases do you see for blockchain in the future?
One promising area is digital documentation, where blockchain can enhance security, transparency, and efficiency in the allocation of benefits, grants, and public sector resources. By providing an immutable ledger, blockchain can reduce fraud, increase accountability, and ensure seamless verification across agencies.
Another potential use is in the management and protection of stored value, especially in government programs that distribute financial aid or subsidies. Tokenization also has potential, especially for government departments involved in financial redistribution.
B. Overall Digital Policy
Julie Monaco is Global Head of Public Sector Banking at Citi.
Q: What does a successful national digital policy look like?
A successful national digital policy is not just about technology, but also about vision and goals. It starts with bold leadership and a commitment to building an inclusive, people-centric digital economy. Empowering digital czars to coordinate priorities around AI, data privacy, and cybersecurity is key.
It is estimated that strategic investments in digital ID systems could unlock access for 1.7 billion people, save 110 billion hours of labor, and increase emerging market GDP by 6%. With 3.6 billion people already registered globally, according to Juniper Research, momentum is strong. Countries like Estonia, India, and Singapore are demonstrating what is possible when policy leads innovation.
Q: What role should blockchain play as part of successful digital policy to enable accountability, transparency, and efficiency?
Blockchain definitely has a role to play in successful digital policy, especially in strengthening accountability, transparency, and efficiency. Its ability to create immutable records and automate audit trails through smart contracts has the potential to reduce fraud, improve regulation, and build trust in public systems. In terms of efficiency, it can simplify services such as taxation or welfare distribution by reducing bureaucracy.
It is not a panacea, but if used properly, blockchain can be a powerful tool to help governments operate with greater integrity, responsiveness and efficiency.
A stablecoin is a cryptocurrency that aims to stabilize its value by pegging its market value to an underlying asset. The underlying asset can be a fiat currency (such as the US dollar), a commodity (such as gold) or a basket of financial instruments.
The key components of the stablecoin ecosystem include:
Stablecoin issuers: The entity that issues the stablecoin and is responsible for managing its underlying assets, typically holding a value equal to the circulating supply of the stablecoin in the underlying assets.
Blockchain ledger: Once the stablecoin is issued to the public, the transaction will be recorded on the blockchain ledger. This ledger provides transparency and security by tracking the ownership and flow of stablecoins between users.
Reserves and collateral: Reserves ensure that each token can be redeemed at the value it is pegged to. For fiat-collateralized stablecoins, these reserves typically include cash, short-term government bonds, and other liquid assets.
Digital wallet providers: Provide digital wallets, which can be mobile applications, hardware devices, or software interfaces, that allow stablecoin holders to store, send, and receive their currencies.
How do stablecoins maintain their pegs?
Stablecoins rely on different mechanisms to ensure that their value remains consistent with the underlying asset. Fiat-backed stablecoins maintain their pegs by ensuring that each issued token can be redeemed for an equal amount of fiat currency.
Major Stablecoins on the Market
As of April 2025, the total stablecoin circulation has exceeded $230 billion, an increase of 54% since April 2024. The top two stablecoins dominate the ecosystem, accounting for more than 90% of the market share by value and transaction volume, with Tether (USDT) leading the way, followed by USD Coin (USDC).
In recent years, the transaction volume of stablecoins has grown rapidly. Adjusted by Visa Onchain Analytics, stablecoin transaction volume reached $650 billion to $700 billion per month in the first quarter of 2025, about twice the level from the second half of 2021 to the first half of 2024. Supporting transactions in the crypto ecosystem has always been the main use case of stablecoins.
The largest stablecoin by market value, USDT, was launched on the Bitcoin blockchain in 2014 and expanded to the Ethereum blockchain in 2017, enabling its application in decentralized finance (DeFi). In 2019, USDT further expanded to the Tron network, which is widely used in Asia due to its faster speed and lower costs. USDT mainly operates overseas, but times are changing.
We will definitely see more players (especially banks and traditional players) enter the market. USD-backed stablecoins will continue to dominate. Ultimately, the number of players will depend on how many different products are needed to cover the main use cases - and this market will likely have more players than the credit card network market.
Matt Blumenfeld, Global And US Digital Assets Lead, PWC
According to Erin McCune, Founder & Principal Consultant, Forte FinTech, the channel factors for stablecoins are as follows:
The practical advantages of stablecoins (speed, low cost, 24/7 availability) are creating demand in developed and emerging economies. In particular, countries where instant payments are not yet widely available, small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) in these countries are underserved by incumbents, and multinational companies want to more easily transfer funds globally. These countries still have high cross-border transaction costs, immature banking technology, and/or lagging financial inclusion.
Macro needs (inflation hedging, financial inclusion) are driving stablecoin adoption in regions with high inflation. Consumers in countries such as Argentina, Turkey, Nigeria, Kenya, and Venezuela use stablecoins to protect their funds. Today, more remittances are sent in the form of stablecoins, and unbanked consumers now have access to digital dollars.
Acceptance and integration by existing banks and payment providers is key to legitimizing stablecoins (especially for institutional and corporate users) and can quickly expand their use and applicability. Mature and scaled payment network operators and core processors can increase transparency and facilitate integration with digital solutions that businesses and merchants rely on. Clearing mechanisms between various stablecoins between banks and non-bank institutions are also critical to achieving scale. Technology improvements for consumers (easy-to-use wallets) and merchants (embed stablecoin acceptance into API-accessible acquiring platforms) are removing barriers that once limited stablecoins to the fringe of cryptocurrencies.
Long-awaited regulatory clarity will allow banks and the broader financial services industry to introduce stablecoins in both the retail and wholesale sectors. Transparency (audit requirements) and consistent liquidity management (reliable par value) will also simplify operational integration.
Matt Blumenfeld, Global And US Digital Assets Lead, PWC, said the channel factors for stablecoins are as follows:
User Experience: The global payments landscape is increasingly moving towards real-time digital transactions. But the adoption of every new payment method faces challenges in customer experience – is it intuitive, can you see the use case, is the value clear. Any institution that successfully improves the customer experience – whether for retail or institutional users – will stand out as a leader in their respective fields.
Integration with our current payment methods will drive the next wave of adoption. On the retail side, this will be reflected in the popularity of bank cards or mobile wallets. On the institutional side, this will be reflected in simpler, more flexible and more cost-effective settlement.
Regulatory Clarity: Following the introduction of new stablecoin regulations, we can see how regulatory uncertainty has severely inhibited innovation and adoption around the world. The introduction of MiCA regulations, regulatory clarity in Hong Kong, and progress in stablecoin legislation in the United States have triggered a surge in activity aimed at simplifying the flow of funds for institutions and consumers.
Innovation and Efficiency: Institutions must view stablecoins as an enabler for more agile product development, which is difficult to achieve in this era. This means providing a simpler, more creative, or more attractive medium that enhances traditional bank deposits in the form of, for example, yield generation, programmability, and composability.
As Forte Fintech's Erin McCune points out, any prediction of the potential size of the stablecoin market needs to be made with caution. There are many factors that affect market volatility, and our own analysis also shows that the market volatility range is wide.
We construct our forecast horizon based on the growth in stablecoin demand driven by:
Conversion of some U.S. and non-U.S. dollar holdings from paper money to stablecoins – U.S. paper money held overseas is often a safe haven against local volatility, and stablecoins are a more convenient way to access such a hedge. In the U.S., stablecoins can be used in part for certain payment functions and held for this purpose.
Reconfiguration of some of the short-term U.S. dollar liquidity held by U.S. and international households and businesses into stablecoins to support cash management and payment operations. Stablecoins are easy to use (e.g., 24/7 cross-border payments, etc.) and may partially replace yield-bearing assets if regulations allow.
In addition, we assume that the trend of short-term liquidity substitution in EUR/GBP is similar to that of short-term U.S. dollar liquidity held by domestic households and businesses, albeit on a much smaller scale. In our baseline scenario, our optimistic scenario for 2030 forecasts that the stablecoin market remains primarily driven by the U.S. dollar (~90%).
Growth of public crypto markets, where stablecoins are used as a facilitator for settlement or monetary acceptance; driven in part by growing institutional adoption of public crypto assets and the general use of blockchain technology. In our baseline scenario, we assume that the growth trend in stablecoin issuance from 2021 to 2024 will continue.
Our baseline scenario estimate for the size of the stablecoin market in 2030 is $1.6 trillion, our optimistic scenario estimates it at $3.7 trillion, and our pessimistic scenario estimates it at $0.5 trillion.
Note: The stock of monetary aggregates (cash in circulation, M0, M1 and M2) in 2030 is calculated using nominal GDP growth rates. The euro area and the United Kingdom may issue and adopt local currency stablecoins. China may adopt sovereign central bank digital currency (CBDC), and is less likely to adopt foreign privately issued stablecoins. Bearish forecast for non-USD stablecoins in 2030: $21 billion; Baseline forecast: $103 billion; Bullish forecast: $298 billion.
Erin McCune is the founder and chief consultant of Forte Fintech. She has more than 25 years of consulting experience in the payment field. Her consulting work focuses on commercial payments, cross-border transactions, and the intersection of corporate finance, banking, and enterprise software. Prior to founding Forte Fintech, she was a partner at Bain & Company and Glenbrook Partners.
Q: What are the optimistic and cautious outlooks for the size of the stablecoin market in the near term and the potential factors driving its development?
It takes a lot of confidence (or arrogance) to predict the growth of the global stablecoin market, as there are still many unknowns. Based on this, I offer the following optimistic and pessimistic forecasts:
The most optimistic forecast is that the market will expand 5-10 times as stablecoins become an everyday medium for instant, low-cost, low-friction transactions around the world. The relatively optimistic forecast is that by 2030, the value of stablecoins will grow exponentially from about $200 billion today to $1.5 trillion-2.0 trillion, and will penetrate global trade payments, P2P remittances, and mainstream banking.
This optimism relies on several key assumptions:
Low regulatory policies in key regions - not only Europe and North America, but also markets where the demand for local fiat currency alternatives is the greatest, such as Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.
Establishment of genuine trust between incumbent banks and new entrants, and widespread trust among consumers and businesses in the integrity of stablecoin reserves (e.g., $1 stablecoin = $1 equivalent value in preferred fiat currency)
Adequate revenue distribution across the value chain to foster collaboration; and
Broad adoption of technologies that bridge new and legacy infrastructures, fostering structural efficiency and scale. For example, merchant acquirers are already using stablecoins. For wholesale payment applications, corporate treasury and accounts payable (AP) solutions, as well as commercial banks need to adapt. Commercial banks will need to deploy tokenization and smart contracts.
In the pessimistic scenario, stablecoin use remains limited to the crypto ecosystem and specific cross-border use cases (primarily illiquid money markets, which currently account for only a small fraction of global GDP). Geopolitical factors, resistance to digital dollarization, and widespread CBDC adoption will further hinder the growth of stablecoins. In this scenario, stablecoins are likely to stabilize at a market cap of $300 billion to $500 billion and have a limited role in the mainstream economy.
The following factors will lead to a more pessimistic scenario:
If one or more major stablecoins experience a reserve failure or depeg event, this will severely erode the trust of retail investors and businesses.
The friction and costs associated with using stablecoins for everyday purchases are high—whether it’s remittance recipients being unable to buy groceries, pay tuition and rent, or businesses being unable to easily access funds to pay salaries, inventory, etc.
Retail CBDCs have yet to gain traction, but stablecoins may be less suitable in regions where public sector digital cash alternatives can scale.
In regions where stablecoins are gaining traction and the relevance of local fiat currencies is further weakened, central bankers may respond by increasing regulation.
If fully reserve-backed stablecoins are large enough, this could “tie up” a significant amount of safe assets to back them, potentially restricting credit in the economy.
Q: What are the current and future use cases for stablecoins?
Like any other payment method, the relevance and potential growth of stablecoins must be considered based on the specific use case. Some use cases have gained widespread traction, while others remain theoretical or are clearly impractical. Here are the use cases that currently (or in the near future) contribute to stablecoin transaction volume (from largest to smallest):
Cryptocurrency trading: Individuals and institutions using stablecoins to trade digital assets is currently the largest use case, accounting for 90-95% of stablecoin transaction volume. This type of activity is largely driven by algorithmic trading and arbitrage. In the mature stage, given the continued growth of the crypto market and its dependence on stablecoin liquidity, trading (retail + DeFi activity) may still account for about 50% of stablecoin usage.
B2B payments (corporate payments): According to Swift, the vast majority of traditional correspondent banking transaction amounts reach their destination within minutes through Swift GPI. But this mainly occurs between centralized currency banks, between highly liquid currencies, and during banking hours. There are still many inefficiencies and unpredictability issues, especially when doing business in low- and middle-income countries. Businesses that use stablecoins to pay overseas suppliers and manage treasury operations may account for a significant share of the stablecoin market. Given that global B2B capital flows are as high as tens of trillions of dollars, even a small portion of them turning to stablecoins could be equivalent to 20%-25% of the total stablecoin market size in the long run.
Consumer Remittances: Despite a steady shift from cash to digital currencies, pressure from regulators, and focused efforts from new entrants, it remains costly for workers overseas to send money to friends and family back home (5% of average $200 transactions: 5x higher than the G20 target). With lower fees and faster speeds, stablecoins are poised to capture a significant share of the ~$1 trillion remittance market. If the promised immediacy and dramatically lower costs are realized, stablecoins could capture 10%-20% of the market in a high adoption scenario.
Institutional Trading and Capital Markets: The use cases for stablecoins to settle transactions for professional investors or tokenized securities are expanding. Large flows (forex, securities settlement) could begin using stablecoins to speed settlement. Stablecoins could also streamline the funding process for retail purchases of stocks and bonds, which is currently typically done through batch automated clearing house processing. Large asset managers have begun piloting stablecoin settlement for funds, laying the foundation for widespread use in capital markets. Given the huge payment flows between financial institutions, even modest adoption could account for around 10% to 15% of the stablecoin market.
Interbank liquidity and funding: The percentage of banks and financial institutions using stablecoins for internal or interbank settlements is small, but the impact could be significant (likely less than 10% of the total market size). Leading industry player JP Morgan has launched a blockchain project with daily transactions of over $1 billion, which shows great potential despite the lack of regulatory transparency. This area could grow significantly, although it may overlap with the institutional uses mentioned above.
We believe that the use of stablecoins is likely to grow, and these new opportunities will create space for new entrants. The current duopoly of issuers is likely to persist in the offshore market, but the onshore market in each country may provide a platform for new players to join.
Just as the bank card market has evolved over the past 10-15 years, the stablecoin market will also change. Stablecoins have some similarities to the bank card industry or cross-border banking. All of these industries have strong network/platform effects and strong reinforcement loops. More merchants accepting a trusted brand (Visa, Mastercard, etc.) will attract more cardholders to use the card. Stablecoins also have a similar usage loop.
In larger jurisdictions, stablecoins are generally not subject to financial regulation, but this is changing in the EU (MICA, 2024) and the US (in progress). The need for stricter financial regulation, as well as the high cost requirements for partners, may lead to a concentration of stablecoin issuers, just as we have seen with credit card networks.
Ultimately, having a few select stablecoin issuers is good for the broader ecosystem.
While one or two major players may appear concentrated, too many stablecoins can lead to a fragmented, non-fungible form of money. Stablecoins can only thrive if they have scale and liquidity.
Raj Dhamodharan, Executive Vice President, Blockchain & Digital Assets, Mastercard
However, political and technological developments have led to increasing heterogeneity in the credit card market, especially outside the United States. Could the same happen with stablecoins?
Many countries have developed their own national card schemes, such as Brazil’s Elo (2011), India’s RuPay (2012), and many others. Many national card schemes were launched out of national sovereignty concerns and driven by local regulatory changes and political encouragement from domestic financial institutions. They have also achieved integration with new national real-time payment systems, such as Brazil’s Pix and India’s UPI. International card schemes, while continuing to grow in recent years, have lost market share in many non-US markets. In many markets, technological change has led to the rise of digital wallets, account-to-account payments, and super apps. All of this has led to a decline in the market share of credit cards.
Just as we have seen a surge in national-level schemes in the credit card market, we are likely to see jurisdictions outside the United States continue to focus on developing their own central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) as a tool for national strategic autonomy, especially in the wholesale and corporate payments sectors.
An OMFIF survey of 34 central banks showed that 75% still plan to issue a CBDC. The proportion of respondents who expect to issue a CBDC in the next three to five years has increased from 26% in 2023 to 34% in 2024. At the same time, some practical implementation issues are also becoming increasingly prominent - 31% of central banks have postponed their issuance timetables, citing legislation and a desire to explore broader solutions.
CBDC projects began in 2014, when the People's Bank of China (PBoC) began researching the digital yuan. Coincidentally, Tether was also born in this year. Stablecoins have developed rapidly in recent years, driven by private market forces.
In contrast, CBDCs are still largely in the official pilot stage. The few small economies that have launched national CBDC projects have not seen much organic user growth. However, the recent increase in geopolitical tensions may increase interest in CBDC projects.
The adoption of stablecoins and digital assets provides new business opportunities for some banks and financial institutions to drive revenue growth:
The role of banks in the stablecoin ecosystem
There are many opportunities for banks to participate in the development of stablecoins and continue to act as a hub for money flows. This can be directly as a stablecoin issuer, as part of a payment collection/payment solution, structured products around stablecoins, general liquidity provision, or in a more indirect way.
We have seen deposits flow out of the banking system as users pursue more attractive products and better experiences. With stablecoin technology, banks have the opportunity to create better products and experiences while keeping deposits in the banking system - users generally prefer the safety of their deposits in the banking system.
Matt Blumenfeld,Global and US Digital Assets Lead, PwC
At the systemic level, stablecoins could have similar effects to “narrow banks,” and there is a long-standing policy debate about the merits of such institutions. The shift of bank deposits to stablecoins could affect banks’ ability to lend. This reduction in lending capacity could dampen economic growth, at least during the transition period as the system adjusts.
As summarized in IMF Paper No. 9 of 2001, conventional economic policy opposes narrow banking due to concerns about credit creation and growth. The Cato Institute’s 2023 report and others like it have also raised objections, arguing that “narrow banking” can reduce systemic risk, while credit and other flows adapt.
Trust and transparency are the core advantages of blockchain in the public sector. Blockchain has great potential to replace existing centralized systems, thereby improving operational efficiency, enhancing data protection, and reducing fraud.
While the volume of on-chain transactions in the public sector may initially be smaller than that in the private sector, the growing interest of the public sector is critical to the widespread adoption of blockchain.
Blockchain technology has the potential to transform public spending and finance of government services by improving transparency, efficiency, and accountability, while significantly reducing reliance on manual and paper-based processes. By integrating financial and non-financial reporting between government agencies and external partners, blockchain can track expenditures in real time.
This should reduce the risk of corruption while strengthening public trust in public institutions. The immutable nature of blockchain records ensures that transactions are traceable and verifiable, thereby simplifying the audit process and strengthening accountability. Blockchain can also monitor fiscal disbursements in real time and provide data-driven insights to assess the impact of public spending.
The use of smart contracts can make the bidding process more efficient by automating the bidding, evaluation and contract awarding processes. This reduces manual intervention and increases transparency in contract awards, thereby addressing the bias and favoritism common in manual selection. Contract payments can also be phased in by milestones, ensuring that funds are released only when project milestones are achieved.
Tax administration and compliance processes can be streamlined by integrating blockchain into accounting systems, automating tax calculations and remitting payments to the government. Since all transactions are permanently recorded on the blockchain, tax evasion becomes more difficult, thereby strengthening tax administration.
Blockchain-based digital bonds can also be issued faster and more transparently through automatic interest payments. It also allows for fractional ownership, thereby expanding investor participation. Real-time tracking of debt instruments over the life of the bond can further improve accountability and investor confidence.
In addition to improving efficiency and accountability, blockchain-based digitization of government services can also reduce the large amount of paper documents used for contracts, records and transactions each year. For example, Dubai’s “Paperless Strategy” aims to reduce the billions of pieces of paper generated each year by digitizing all services, including visa applications, bill payments, and license renewals, which will now be securely transacted through blockchain technology.
The traditional government and public sector funding and grant disbursement process typically involves a lot of manual work - processing forms, verifying claims, and managing cash flow. Blockchain offers a more efficient alternative that can streamline the process and enhance data security and integrity. The use of blockchain can also increase transparency, ensure fair allocation of funds, and reduce opportunities for corruption and fraud. Blockchain can also reduce operating costs and improve efficiency in record keeping and reconciliation.
Cryptographic hash data is integrated into the blockchain system to enhance the integrity of transaction information and avoid unauthorized access. Smart contracts can also automate and protect the allocation process by programming pre-defined conditions (such as verifying eligibility criteria).
Blockchain technology is well suited for cross-border use in many ways, and the World Bank's "FundsChain" initiative, launched in September 2024, is a good example. The initiative currently has nine projects in Moldova, the Philippines, Kenya, Bangladesh, Mauritius and Mozambique.
FundsChain - World Bank's blockchain for tracking fund disbursements
The World Bank is responsible for disbursing billions of dollars in funds each year and ensuring that the funds are used for their intended purposes. With numerous projects in multiple countries, tracking and verifying the use of funds has traditionally been a time-consuming manual process. While some tasks have been automated, much of the oversight is still labor-intensive. The FundsChain program aims to increase transparency and efficiency in the fund allocation process.
The World Bank has partnered with EY to develop a blockchain-based platform designed to track the flow and expenditure of funds in real time. FundsChain provides a robust tracking capability for disbursement of funds, enabling stakeholders to see funds in real time, increasing transparency and confidence that funds are actually reaching the intended beneficiaries, ultimately enabling the World Bank to support the anti-corruption reform agenda in borrowing countries.
Tokens are generated when funds are credited. These tokens are credited to each entity’s digital wallet. Efficiency is improved by automating transactions through smart contracts, and security and data integrity are further enhanced by storing and notarizing uploaded resources on the blockchain. Consensus algorithms are used to validate transactions and prevent overspending.
Currently, this oversight is achieved through contractual requirements for borrowers to submit expenditure reports and collect other supporting documentation. This can be a highly manual, labor-intensive and time-consuming process that requires significant coordination, time and cost. With FundsChain, all project stakeholders (including borrowers, suppliers, auditors and end beneficiaries) can see where the funds are going, how they are used and when, providing end-to-end transparency, with all transactions recorded on-chain, enabling stakeholders to monitor the flow of funds in real time.
The World Bank built FundsChain using a private blockchain because they wanted to have control over the platform and its future development. Given the sensitive nature of their public sector mission, they did not want to rely on a third-party vendor. They also wanted to ensure that any platform they used would interoperate with other MDBs’ platforms, allowing for seamless integration.
Blockchain technology provides a robust and secure platform for public records management, ensuring the authenticity, integrity, and accessibility of critical data. By leveraging an immutable ledger, blockchain can maintain the integrity, accuracy, and tamper-proofness of records, thereby enhancing public trust in government systems.
Unlike traditional databases that store records centrally, data on a blockchain is distributed across a network of multiple nodes, making it accessible even if a single node fails, and reducing the risk of data breaches caused by cyberattacks. Any modifications to records are encrypted and time-stamped, creating an auditable trail that protects citizen data while enhancing accountability. Blockchain also improves the accessibility and usability of records, as records can be easily retrieved and accessed when needed.
Governments are exploring blockchain solutions for public records management. For example, Singapore’s OpenCerts is a blockchain platform that enables educational institutions to issue and verify tamper-proof academic certificates. This helps reduce the risk of document forgery and streamlines credential verification.
Another area where blockchain can drive significant improvements is in land title and real estate management. This area is often plagued by fragmented record keeping, outdated processes, and corruption. The risk of fraud is particularly high in countries where public sector corruption is rampant. For example, Georgia has integrated its land title registry system into the Bitcoin blockchain, improving the verification of real estate-related transactions while increasing security and service efficiency.
In countries where institutional integrity is weak, there is an opportunity to increase transparency and restore public trust in public institutions through decentralized ledgers. These ledgers are auditable, transparent to the public, and maintained by parties who have an incentive not to collude.
Artem Korenyuk, Digital Assets – Client, Citi
During crises, effective coordination is critical as multiple entities use different systems to deliver aid for food, healthcare and shelter. Blockchain can simplify project design, resource allocation and data sharing by providing a unified shared ledger, thereby avoiding duplication of efforts and ensuring that aid reaches those who need it most. Real-time, verifiable transaction records can also facilitate cooperation between aid agencies, governments and non-governmental organizations, thereby reducing overall response time.
In addition to coordination, blockchain has the potential to reinvent crisis crowdfunding, providing a transparent and decentralized mechanism for mobilizing funds. By leveraging digital currencies, blockchain can collect donations and transfer them directly to verified beneficiaries without the need for intermediaries, thereby reducing costs and delays. The use of smart contracts can further automate the disbursement of funds based on predetermined conditions.
Ensuring the integrity of humanitarian supply chains is another key challenge that blockchain can help solve. By enabling end-to-end traceability, blockchain enables aid agencies to track the origin, movement, and use of humanitarian supplies. This breaks down data silos, prevents corruption, and ensures that aid reaches affected communities efficiently. It also enables real-time inventory tracking, helping organizations respond more quickly to shortages and avoid logistical bottlenecks.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)’s use of the Stellar blockchain to distribute humanitarian aid is a striking example of blockchain’s impact in the public sector. UNHCR implemented blockchain technology to streamline the process of distributing financial aid, successfully applying it in Ukraine, Argentina, and other parts of the world. A key benefit of blockchain is the significant cost savings it has brought through overall digital transformation efforts.
Blockchain also brings greater transparency. In many crisis situations, displaced people may not have access to traditional banking services. By using blockchain-based wallets, aid recipients can receive and use funds without relying on third parties.
Denelle Dixon, CEO and Executive Director, Stellar Development Foundation
Tokenization has the potential to unlock value and improve efficiency, transparency, and accessibility by digitally representing real-world and financial assets through tokens. In the public sector, tokenization can be applied to both financial and physical assets.
Governments can tokenize debt instruments to make bond issuance more efficient and enable participation by a wider range of investors. Similarly, natural resources and infrastructure assets such as roads, bridges, and utilities can be represented as digital tokens, making them more efficiently tracked, managed, and financed.
In addition to investment accessibility and fractional ownership models, tokenization can help financial institutions and public institutions streamline operations and reduce inefficiencies and systemic risks. Automation through smart contracts can minimize intermediaries, improve liquidity, and enhance public trust in the management of public assets.
Some institutions have explored the use of blockchain in digital bonds. For example, the European Investment Bank (EIB) issued its first blockchain-based digital bond in 2021 for €100 million. The issuance was in partnership with the Bank of France, using blockchain for the registration and settlement of digital bonds.
In 2022, the EIB launched the Venus project, issuing its first euro-denominated digital bond on a private blockchain using central bank money in the form of a wholesale CBDC. Similarly, the Swiss city of Lugano completed three bond issuances using distributed ledger technology (DLT)/blockchain technology in 2023-24 using the Swiss National Bank's wholesale CBDC.
Promissa – Tokenized Promissory Notes
Many international financial institutions, including the Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), are partly funded by financial instruments known as promissory notes, most of which still exist in paper form. While the current system framework provides operational control over member countries’ subscriptions and dues to public institutions such as the World Bank, the custody of outstanding promissory notes could be digitized to address operational challenges and further improve efficiency.
The Promissa project, a joint initiative of the BIS Innovation Hub, the Swiss National Bank and the World Bank, aims to build a prototype platform for digital tokenized promissory notes. The Promissa project explores the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT) to simplify the management of promissory notes and provide a single source of truth for all counterparties throughout the lifecycle of a promissory note. This will allow member central banks to have a comprehensive view of their outstanding notes with MDBs and vice versa.
The volume of promissory notes between MDBs is huge: for example, the two largest institutions of the World Bank, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA), have a large number of promissory notes pledged by member countries since their inception. While Project Promissa aims to reimagine a "single source of truth" platform solution to simplify the management of promissory notes between member countries and MDBs, it can be extended to payments related to such promissory notes in the future through the integration of tokenization or existing payment systems.
A single digital identity can serve as a valid proof of public and private transactions, enhancing storage security and convenience. Blockchain-based digital identity (ID) provides a decentralized, tamper-proof authentication mechanism, thereby reducing the risk of fraud and identity theft.
Digital identity extends basic services to underserved communities and those without official documents, such as displaced people. With nearly 850 million people lacking official identification, digital IDs can empower individuals through the use of alternative data such as biometrics and community verification.
Blockchain’s immutable nature creates a transparent record of every transaction, creating a verifiable digital audit trail that enhances security and accountability. Its decentralized architecture and strong cryptographic protocols protect personal data from breaches and fraud.
In addition, self-sovereign identity ensures that individuals have ownership and control over their information and can selectively share data as needed. Advanced technologies such as zero-knowledge proofs enable verification of identity attributes without revealing sensitive information.
The Swiss city of Zug is an early example of this, with its self-sovereign digital ID based on the Ethereum blockchain, providing residents with a single, verifiable electronic identity for a variety of applications. Zug’s blockchain digital identity project was launched in 2017 and has so far seen limited adoption due to a range of factors including complexity and limited usability.
In 2023, Brazil launched a new national ID card based on blockchain. The new digital ID card can be accessed through mobile devices using facial recognition and QR codes. These ID cards are stored on a private blockchain called b-Cadastros, built by Brazil's state-owned IT services company to improve the security and reliability of data sharing between public institutions.
Blockchain has great potential for government services, bringing many advantages such as transparency, security and efficiency. However, the large-scale application of blockchain also faces significant challenges as described below.
Developing standardized protocols and practices will help public blockchains gain wider acceptance and trust in banks and governments. Fostering cooperation between the public and private sectors can drive innovation and ensure that blockchain solutions meet the needs of all stakeholders.
Ricardo Correia, Partner, Bain & Company
Lack of trust: Many blockchain solutions are still experimental and untested, which makes it difficult to build trust in the ecosystem. It is necessary to increase awareness and build relevant skills across the ecosystem. This takes time and investment.
Interoperability and scalability: If blockchain solutions are to be adopted on a national or global scale, they need to be interoperable and scalable to handle large volumes of transactions. Efforts are underway to develop global standards for blockchain so that it can gain broad acceptance across markets.
Transformation challenges: Overhauling existing infrastructure can be extremely challenging and require a significant investment of time and resources. New investment is further hampered by weak evidence of tangible benefits, the perceived immaturity of blockchain technology, and the existence of complex legacy systems.
Regulatory issues: The decentralized nature of blockchain poses challenges for large-scale adoption, so a regulatory framework needs to be established to recognize the legal nature of blockchain, the validity of stored documents, and the financial instruments issued. Regulatory ambiguity slows down the adoption of blockchain.
Addressing the risk of abuse: While it is difficult to quantify the scale of illegal use of cryptocurrencies, it is estimated that illegal addresses received $51 billion in cryptocurrencies in 2024, an increase of 11% from the previous year. However, as a percentage of all on-chain transaction volume, this figure is usually less than 1%.
Resistance to change and public perception
Implementing blockchain often means a radical overhaul of existing systems, which may change all aspects of public officials' work, including their daily work. While some may see blockchain as a positive change to improve administrative processes, many tend to resist it because they view blockchain as a threat.
Public perception also plays a crucial role. Blockchain is sometimes associated with speculative cryptocurrency markets and memecoins, obscuring the real-world benefits of its underlying technology. This can foster skepticism, slowing its mainstream adoption in the public sector.
Saqr Ereiqat, Secretary General, Dubai Digital Asset Association
This section focuses on two major stablecoin legislation currently under consideration by the U.S. Congress. Both pieces of legislation seek to establish a regulatory framework to integrate stablecoins into the mainstream financial ecosystem.
The Guiding and Establishing a United States Stablecoin Nation Innovation Act (GENIUS Act) proposes a two-pronged regulatory approach that regulates stablecoin issuers based on their market capitalization level.
Stablecoin issuers with a total market capitalization of less than $10 billion can choose to be regulated by state regulators (if the state regulatory system is substantially similar to the federal regulatory framework). Issuers with a market capitalization above the $10 billion threshold will be subject to federal regulation. Both banks and non-bank institutions can issue stablecoins with regulatory approval.
The bill outlines the obligations of issuers, including 1:1 reserve backing, disclosure and redemption procedures, monthly reserve composition reporting and certification, prudential standards, and a series of consumer protection measures.
The second legislation is the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy Act of 2025 (STABLE Act). The bill has many similarities to the GENIUS Act in terms of the types of companies that would be allowed to issue stablecoins, and has similar requirements for issuers to maintain 1:1 reserves (but different in terms of reserve composition), as well as similar requirements for disclosure, monthly certifications, etc. Unlike the GENIUS Act, the bill does not distinguish between issuers based on a $10 billion market threshold.
Given that these bills would give certain stablecoin issuers the ability to opt-in to state-level regulatory regimes, they could create regulatory arbitrage risks, where some states could introduce less stringent regimes to attract stablecoin issuers. Differences in state-level regulatory regimes could make it difficult for banks to do business with issuers that are subject to multiple different regulatory regimes.
While both bills open the door for banks to offer stablecoin payment services, including providing custody services, private keys, or reserve backing for payment stablecoins, ensuring that legislation provides appropriate illicit financing protections will be key to enabling banks to take full advantage of such opportunities.
Both bills will become effective 18 months after enactment (to be determined) or 120 days after the federal banking regulators issue final implementing regulations, whichever comes first. Both bills must go through a reconciliation process, where the full House and Senate vote on the same version of the legislation, before they can be passed into law. During this process, the bills could still be amended in substance.
When exploring blockchain-based infrastructure, it is important to weigh the pros and cons of private and public chains. Public chains are permissionless networks that allow anyone to participate, verify transactions, and access data. This openness makes them a powerful tool for accessibility and transparency, but it also creates challenges in areas such as regulatory enforcement and scalability.
This is similar to the current state of public cloud computing and hosting. Bank and financial institution regulators have been concerned about the security and control of data stored in public clouds. This time, similar concerns are being raised about public blockchains. Banks need to put in place appropriate controls and risk mitigation measures, develop rulebooks, and educate people about this.
Biser Dimitrov, Digital Assets – Technology, Citi
Decentralized and not bound by any authority: Public blockchains tend to operate independently of any single entity, reducing the risk of excessive government intervention, censorship, or unilateral manipulation. Governance is usually decentralized and achieved through consensus mechanisms such as Proof of Work (PoW) or Proof of Stake (PoS).
Transparency and auditability: Public blockchains ensure that transactions are permanently recorded and publicly accessible. This transparency enhances accountability, reduces corruption, and helps to strengthen trust in the financial system.
Interoperability and open accessibility: Stablecoins issued on public blockchains can be used in a variety of applications and services without the need for custom integration. They also facilitate global accessibility, allowing anyone with an internet connection to access and use them.
Security and Resilience: The decentralized nature of public chains, secured by a vast network of nodes and cryptographic mechanisms, makes them more resistant to single points of failure, network attacks, and centralized attacks than private systems.
On the other hand, public chains may not be suitable for all use cases:
Scalability and Transaction Throughput: Public chains may struggle with transaction throughput, especially when processing large volumes of transactions, which can result in slower transaction processing and higher fees. This makes them less
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