Can Trump’s 100-day speech end Bitcoin’s consolidation trend?

Author: Nancy Lubale, CoinTelegraph; Compiler: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

Summary

• Bitcoin prices have been consolidating as the market has been waiting for President Trump's 100-day speech recently.

• Since April 22, more than $4.7 billion of Bitcoin has been withdrawn from exchanges, resulting in reduced supply and increased price sensitivity to demand.

• Trump's clarity on cryptocurrency policy could trigger a surge in Bitcoin prices, but tariff measures could limit gains.

• Traders say Bitcoin prices must break through key resistance above $95,000 to continue rising to $100,000 or even higher.

BTC prices are trading in a narrow range between $91,700 and $95,850 ahead of Trump's 100-day rally.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Markets await Trump's 100-day speech

US President Donald Trump delivered his 100-day speech today. Bitcoin investors took a wait-and-see approach ahead of Trump's speech.

Crypto-related policies have featured prominently in Trump's second term so far, but the market is still awaiting specific regulatory updates on cryptocurrencies in his economic policies.

The Trump administration's clarity on its strategic Bitcoin reserve plan could push Bitcoin prices to $100,000. However, a renewed focus on tariffs or significant budget cuts could weigh on the broader market and limit Bitcoin's upside in the short term.

Previously, cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket predicted that there was a 24% chance that Trump would mention "cryptocurrency" or "Bitcoin" in his 100-day speech. Data from the platform showed that users had placed more than $1 million in bets on the speech.

Polymarket predicts the odds of what Trump's 100-day speech will contain. Source: Polymarket

Trump’s comments could spark short-term price surges, as they have in the past. For example, Bitcoin’s recent rally from $74,400 to $94,000 was driven in part by Trump’s statement that tariffs on Chinese goods “will be reduced significantly.”

While Trump’s comments could spark optimism and push prices higher, broader market dynamics, including tariffs and global trade tensions, could cap gains, as seen in recent volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

Over $4.7B in Bitcoin Leaves Exchanges

In addition to the Trump factor, a decline in Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges also supports bullish expectations for a Bitcoin price rally to $100,000.

Investors have withdrawn more than 50,500 Bitcoins (worth $4.7 billion) from exchanges since the easing of macroeconomic tensions sparked a broad market rally.

Exchanges' Bitcoin reserves. Source: CryptoQuant

The reduction in supply on exchanges results in fewer BTC available for sale, thereby increasing the price's sensitivity to demand, which is likely to rise after Trump's speech.

When will BTC break $100,000?

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show that the price of Bitcoin has been consolidating below $96,000 for the past seven days.

“BTC is slowly compressing and making new lows below the $96,000 resistance,” AlphaBTC, a well-known Bitcoin analyst, said in an April 29 post on X.

As Cointelegraph reported, the $95,000 level is a key resistance level that bulls need to break to ensure a price rebound.

“The more attempts to break $95,000, the more likely it is to break out,” AlphaBTC asserted, adding that the squeeze is likely to push Bitcoin towards the much-sought-after $100,000 level.

“I expect a bigger pullback, but it may not come until it breaks through $100,000.”

BTC/USD 30-minute chart. Source: AlphaBTC

Another analyst, Daan Crypto Trades, made a similar observation, saying: “BTC price has been squeezed again in the past few days after falling back to the previous range.”

Daan Crypto Trades believes that a key level to watch on the downside is the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) in the $89,500 to $91,000 range.

The analyst explained that the main resistance levels are the local high of $99,5000 and the “psychological level of $100,000,” adding: “These are the levels to watch in the medium term. For now, we just have to wait and see how it goes in the short term.”

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades

Healthy market fundamentals could reportedly push Bitcoin price past $100,000, setting a new all-time high.

Meanwhile, Peter Chung, head of research at quantitative trading firm Presto, reiterated his prediction that the bitcoin price will reach $210,000 by 2025.