BTC targets $75,000; US-Iran negotiations reverse course again, could the market see a turnaround?

Shaw, Jinse Finance

Starting in the early hours of April 14th, the crypto market rebounded strongly again. Bitcoin briefly broke through $74,000 this morning, reaching $74,904.2 at one point, a 24-hour increase of over 5%; Ethereum briefly broke through $2,300, reaching $2,394.50 at one point, a 24-hour increase of over 8.5%. Other major cryptocurrencies also rebounded to varying degrees.

Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, a total of $531 million in positions were liquidated across the network, with $105 million in long positions and $426 million in short positions liquidated, mainly short positions. Among them, $229 million in Bitcoin short positions were liquidated and $136 million in Ethereum short positions were liquidated. In the past 24 hours, more than 177,200 people across the network have been liquidated.

Trump's statement that Iran remains willing to reach an agreement boosted investor risk appetite. US stocks closed higher, with the S&P 500 recovering all its year-to-date losses. US Treasury yields rose initially but then fell, and the dollar initially jumped due to safe-haven demand before declining throughout the day. Crude oil rose more than 9% at one point, but gains were limited by expectations of US-Iran peace talks. Currently, the news landscape is fraught with uncertainty, and the market remains focused on signals of diplomatic progress, stimulating a rise in risk assets. Global attention is now focused on the next steps in US-Iran negotiations. How will major asset markets react?

I. BTC Aims for $75,000, Crypto Market Rebounds Again, Risk Appetite Improves

Early this morning, the crypto market rebounded strongly again. Bitcoin surged rapidly this morning, briefly breaking through $74,000 and reaching $74,904.2, aiming for the $75,000 mark, with a 24-hour increase of over 5%. Ethereum also rebounded in tandem, briefly breaking through $2,300 and reaching $2,394.50, with a 24-hour increase of over 8.5%. Other major cryptocurrencies also rebounded to varying degrees.

According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, a total of $531 million in positions were liquidated across the entire network, with $105 million in long positions and $426 million in short positions, primarily short positions. Specifically, $229 million in Bitcoin short positions were liquidated, and $136 million in Ethereum short positions were liquidated. Furthermore, in the past 24 hours, over 177,200 people across the network have been liquidated, with the largest single liquidation occurring in Aster - BTCUSDT, valued at $12.4072 million. Meanwhile, although US-Iran peace talks remained deadlocked, Trump indicated that Iran was still willing to reach an agreement, boosting investor risk appetite. US stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 recovering all its year-to-date losses. The S&P 500 rose 1.02%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.63%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.23%. US Treasury yields rose initially but then fell, with the 10-year yield falling 1.98 basis points and the 2-year yield falling 1.89 basis points. The US dollar initially jumped due to safe-haven demand but subsequently declined throughout the day, ultimately closing at its lowest level since March 3. Crude oil initially rose more than 9%, but gains were limited by expectations of US-Iran peace talks, and it subsequently fell back below $100. Gold fell for the second consecutive day, with gold futures falling more than 3% at one point. The breakdown of US-Iran peace talks, coupled with Trump's announcement of a news blackout, triggered widespread risk aversion. However, according to Xinhua News Agency early this morning, Trump told the media at the White House that the US received a call that morning from "the right person" in Iran who expressed a desire to reach an agreement. US officials revealed that contact between the US delegation and Iranian leaders continues after the Islamabad talks, and "progress is currently being made in striving to reach an agreement." Although the news is full of uncertainty, the market still chooses to focus on signals of diplomatic progress, stimulating the rise of some risk assets. In the crypto market, the continued push for regulatory legislation and the continuous inflow of institutional buying funds have also increased liquidity, which is beneficial to the market rebound. II. US-Iran Talks Reverse Again and Again, Stimulating Market Risk Appetite Sources revealed that the US and Iran are discussing holding a new round of face-to-face negotiations to seek a longer-term ceasefire agreement. The source indicated that the goal is to hold a new round of talks before the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7 expires next week. They mentioned that one option is to return to Islamabad for a second round of negotiations, but other locations are also under discussion. According to RIA Novosti, citing the American magazine *The Atlantic*, the next round of "direct negotiations" between the US and Iran may be held on the 16th in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. Previous negotiations, chaired by US Vice President Vance in Islamabad, failed to achieve a breakthrough. However, in an interview with Fox News, Vance stated that the US has made significant progress in negotiations with Iran. When asked if there would be more negotiations, Vance said the ball was in Tehran's court. He added that the US expects Iran to make progress on opening the Strait of Hormuz and warned that the situation would change if Tehran did not do so. Vance stated that the US delegation withdrew from negotiations after determining that Iranian negotiators lacked the authority to reach a final agreement, adding that any progress now depends on the approval of the Tehran leadership. Vance emphasized that Trump remains open to establishing a more normalized relationship with Iran, provided key conditions are met. However, he stated that for Iran to become an economically normal country, it must become a normal country that does not pursue nuclear weapons and also a normal country that does not engage in "terrorism." Iran, however, stated that the US's constantly changing demands during negotiations in Islamabad were the reason for the failure to reach an agreement. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated on the 13th that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi, in a phone call with French Foreign Minister Barro on the evening of the 12th, said that despite Iran's "complete distrust" of the US, it participated in the negotiations in a responsible and goodwill manner and made progress on several issues. US President Trump hinted earlier this Monday that he was open to more dialogue, stating that Iran had proactively contacted the US. According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump told reporters at the White House on the 13th that Iran had called the US that morning, saying "they want to reach an agreement." However, Trump also stated that he would not accept any agreement that would allow Tehran to possess nuclear weapons. "Iran will not have nuclear weapons," Trump told reporters at the White House. "We cannot allow one country to blackmail or extort the world." The Iranian nuclear issue and uranium enrichment are among the focal points of the US-Iran standoff. According to AXIOS, a US official and a source familiar with the matter revealed that the US proposed a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment for Iran during negotiations in Islamabad over the weekend. Iran, however, proposed a shorter period, a single-digit number of years. Sources said the US demand for a moratorium on uranium enrichment was a key issue in these marathon negotiations. "The US proposed at least a 20-year moratorium, with various other restrictions attached," said a source familiar with the matter. The US also demanded that Iran remove all highly enriched uranium from the country. Iran stated that it was willing to accept a "monitored de-enrichment process" for these materials. Although the previous round of US-Iran negotiations did not yield significant results, recent statements from all parties indicate that the negotiations have progressed beyond expectations. The market is focusing on these positive developments, risk appetite has increased again, and this has further stimulated the rise of risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. III. The CLARITY Bill Progress Accelerates, Prospects Gradually Become Clearer On April 14, White House digital asset advisor Patrick Witt stated that the previously considered "intractable" differences in crypto legislation have significantly decreased, and the prospects for passing the relevant bill are improving. With Congress reconvening, the Senate's key committee is expected to vote on the CLARITY bill, paving the way for further legislation. This bill aims to clarify the regulatory division of labor between the SEC and CFTC and establish a unified regulatory framework for exchanges and market participants. The current focus of the controversy remains on stablecoin incentive mechanisms. While the passed stablecoin bill prohibits issuers from directly paying interest to users, disagreements persist regarding whether third-party platforms should be allowed to provide rewards. Overall, policy-making is shifting from "high uncertainty" to "gradual convergence," and the regulatory framework for the crypto industry is expected to enter a phase of substantial progress. Furthermore, according to Hodler's Digest, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong publicly stated that after months of legislative delays and multi-party negotiations, the time is "right" for the passage of the US CLARITY Act. This statement represents a significant reversal of his stance on the bill. In January 2026, he twice publicly withdrew his support for the CLARITY Act, citing flaws in its provisions, directly causing the Senate Banking Committee to postpone its review and voting process, bringing the legislative process to a standstill. After months of bipartisan negotiations and multi-party consultations between the crypto industry and the banking sector, Armstrong stated that the current version of the bill has become a "powerful bill" and explicitly called on Congress to push for its enactment. As the most important comprehensive regulatory bill for the crypto market to date, the CLARITY Act is gradually becoming clearer after a long period of multi-party negotiations. The accelerated progress of this bill is one of the major positive factors currently supporting market trends. IV. Listed Treasury Companies Buy in Large Quantities; Institutional Buying Supports the Market. Bitcoin treasury company Strategy purchased 13,927 Bitcoins last week, totaling approximately $1 billion, at a price of approximately $71,902 per coin, achieving a 5.6% Bitcoin return year-to-date (2026). As of April 12, 2026, Strategy held 780,897 Bitcoins, with a total value of approximately $59.02 billion and an average price of approximately $75,577 per Bitcoin. As of April 12, Eastern Time, the total cryptocurrency, cash, and "Moonshot" holdings of Ethereum treasury company BitMine amounted to $11.8 billion. BitMine held 4,874,858 ETH (an increase of 71,524 ETH from the previous week), representing 4.04% of the total Ethereum supply (120.7 million ETH). It also held 197 BTC, $200 million worth of shares in Beast Industries, $85 million worth of shares in Eightco Holdings (NASDAQ: ORBS), and $719 million in uncollateralized cash. As of April 13, 2026, Bitmine had a total of 3,334,637 ETH staked (equivalent to $7.4 billion at $2,206 per ETH). Listed treasury companies, as major institutional buyers, have consistently purchased large amounts of related crypto assets, which is a significant factor supporting the market. When the market is sluggish, institutional buying can alleviate downward pressure. And when the market rebounds strongly, institutional buying becomes a major boost to asset prices. V. Continued Inflow of Funds into ETFs Improves Liquidity CoinShares monitoring data shows that last week, funds flowing into digital asset investment products reached $1.1 billion, the highest weekly inflow since early January. Bitcoin inflows totaled $871 million, bringing the total inflows so far this year to nearly $2 billion. Ethereum market sentiment rebounded strongly, with inflows reaching $196.5 million. XRP saw inflows of $19.3 million, while other assets experienced almost no inflows. Solana saw a small outflow of $2.5 million. Furthermore, US spot ETFs contributed 95% of the inflows. SoSoValue data shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $786 million last week, and the US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of $187 million. This continued improvement in ETF inflows is injecting liquidity into the crypto market, expanding market demand for cryptocurrencies, and thus driving the asset's upward trend.

VI. Market Analysis and Interpretation

1. Louis Miller, Head of Global Customized Equity Basket Business at Goldman Sachs, pointed out that current momentum indicators have not yet entered the overbought zone. As long as the fundamentals remain solid during the upcoming earnings season, this AI-driven breakout rally still has ample room to continue, especially in the AI ​​infrastructure sector. Market consensus estimates that the EPS growth rate of information technology stocks in the first quarter of this year will reach as high as 44%, which is undoubtedly the most crucial catalyst for this quarter. Despite the recent sharp fluctuations in gold prices, Goldman Sachs maintains its baseline forecast that gold prices will reach $5,400/ounce by the end of this year. The "three driving forces" supporting this aggressive target are: the continued diversification needs of global central banks, the gradual normalization of speculative positions, and the Federal Reserve's expected 50 basis point rate cut this year. Against this macroeconomic backdrop, gold mining companies have in fact benefited from positive operating leverage, significantly improved free cash flow, and have the potential to increase dividends.

8. Foreign exchange analyst Carter Johnson stated that in the market environment following the release of the CPI data, the US dollar spot index has cumulatively fallen by about 1.4%, and is expected to record its largest weekly decline since January. Regarding the clear macro trading strategy during the US-Iran conflict, buying the dollar and oil has been quite effective. However, as the foreign exchange market enters a phase where trading relies heavily on news headlines (this time, reports on negotiations against the backdrop of a fragile ceasefire), this strategy will face a test.