BTC rebounds back to $72,000; US-Iran ceasefire provides some breathing room for the market?

Shaw, Jinse Finance

In the early hours of April 8th, the cryptocurrency market saw a strong rebound. Bitcoin briefly broke through $72,000, reaching $72,760, a 24-hour increase of over 5%; Ethereum briefly broke through $2,200, reaching $2,273.44, a 24-hour increase of over 7%. Other major cryptocurrencies also saw varying degrees of increase.

Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, $595 million in positions were liquidated across the entire network, with $166 million in long positions and $429 million in short positions, primarily short positions. Bitcoin short positions liquidated $244 million, and Ethereum short positions liquidated $125 million. In the past 24 hours, over 118,600 people across the network have been liquidated.

Global major asset markets experienced significant volatility due to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. US stocks recovered from sharp fluctuations, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq narrowly closing higher. US Treasury yields initially rose before falling. The US dollar index retreated to last week's low. Brent crude oil plummeted 15%, while spot gold extended its gains by nearly 3% intraday. Trump announced a two-week temporary halt to attacks on Iran early this morning, and Iran also declared its acceptance of the ceasefire agreement. The easing of tensions in the Middle East, which had lasted for nearly two months, significantly boosted market risk appetite. I. Crypto assets rebounded sharply, boosting global market risk appetite. Early this morning, the crypto market saw a strong rebound due to the easing of the macroeconomic and geopolitical crisis. Bitcoin briefly broke through $72,000, touching $72,760 at one point, with a 24-hour increase of over 5%. Ethereum surged in tandem, briefly breaking through $2,200 and reaching $2,273.44, a 24-hour increase of over 7%. Solana briefly broke through $85, reaching $87.02, also a 24-hour increase of over 7%. Other major cryptocurrencies mostly saw varying degrees of gains. Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, $595 million in positions were liquidated across the network, with $166 million in long positions and $429 million in short positions, primarily short positions. Bitcoin short positions saw $244 million liquidated, and Ethereum short positions saw $125 million liquidated. Furthermore, in the past 24 hours, over 118,600 people across the network have been liquidated, with the largest single liquidation order occurring on Binance - BTCUSDT, valued at $11.7954 million. Meanwhile, major global asset markets experienced significant volatility due to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. US stocks recovered from their losses after experiencing sharp fluctuations, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing higher. The S&P 500 rose 0.08%, the Nasdaq rose 0.10%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.18%. US Treasury yields initially rose and then fell, with the 10-year yield initially rising 4.5 basis points before declining by more than 8 basis points from its daily high, while the 2-year yield ultimately fell 5 basis points. The US dollar index fell for the second consecutive trading day on Tuesday, returning to last week's low. Brent crude oil plunged 15%, while spot gold extended its intraday gains by nearly 3%, rising above $4,835. Trump announced early this morning that he had agreed to a two-week suspension of bombings and attacks on Iran, and Iran subsequently announced its acceptance of a two-week ceasefire agreement proposed by Pakistan. The easing of tensions with Iran, which had lasted for nearly two months, significantly boosted market risk appetite, directly impacting the sharp rise in risk assets. Recent improvements in ETF inflows and the return of listed treasury buying have also contributed to the rise in the crypto market. II. US and Iran Agree to Two-Week Ceasefire, Temporarily Easing Geopolitical Crisis Early this morning, US President Trump stated: "Based on my talks with Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif and Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir, who requested that I not deploy destructive forces to Iran tonight, and on the condition that Iran agrees to a full, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to a two-week suspension of bombing and attacks against Iran. This will be a two-way ceasefire. We received Iran's ten-point proposal and consider it a viable basis for negotiations. Almost all past points of contention between the United States and Iran have been resolved, and the two weeks will allow the agreement to be finalized and take effect." Subsequently, Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a statement early on the 8th local time, stating that, based on the advice of the Supreme Leader and the approval of the Supreme National Security Council, it accepted Pakistan's ceasefire proposal. The statement claimed that Iran had achieved almost all of its objectives in the war, and that the enemy had suffered a "historic and complete defeat." Iran will "continue the struggle until its great achievements are consolidated and a new security and political order is established in the region," and decided to hold negotiations in Islamabad to determine the details, "to consolidate the victory through political negotiations within a maximum of 15 days." The statement also indicated that Iran rejected all plans proposed by the enemy and formulated a ten-point plan, which was submitted to the United States through Pakistan. Furthermore, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated: "If the attacks on Iran cease, our powerful armed forces will cease defensive operations. Within the next two weeks, in coordination with the Iranian armed forces and with full consideration of technical limitations, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible." It was reported that the Trump administration is preparing to hold face-to-face talks between US and Iranian officials in the coming days, with both sides working to reach a long-term agreement to end the war between Washington and Tehran. White House Press Secretary Levitt stated, "The possibility of holding in-person talks is currently being discussed, but nothing is certain until the president or the White House makes a formal announcement." Officials indicated that the talks are likely to be held in Islamabad, with Pakistan representing Pakistan as a mediator. Officials revealed that Trump's special envoy Witkov, son-in-law Kushner, and Vice President Vance are expected to attend. The Middle East tensions triggered by the US-Iran conflict have persisted for nearly two months, with the vital Strait of Hormuz remaining closed for an extended period. The conflict in the Middle East has caused repeated fluctuations in important commodities such as oil, bringing numerous adverse effects to the global macroeconomic environment. The recent announcement of a temporary ceasefire and the commencement of negotiations between the US and Iran has brought a glimmer of hope to the turbulent global markets, significantly boosting risk appetite and stimulating a sharp rebound in risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. III. Crypto Asset Investment Fund Flows Show Slight Recovery, Bringing Resilience to the Market According to CoinShares monitoring, market sentiment for digital asset investment products has slightly improved, with inflows reaching $224 million last week. Bitcoin saw a total inflow of $107.3 million, an improvement from its poor start at the beginning of the month. XRP saw the largest inflow of funds among all assets, reaching $119.6 million, the highest since mid-December 2025, bringing its year-to-date inflows to $159 million (7% of assets under management). Solana also received inflows totaling $34.9 million, with stable inflows this year representing 10% of its assets under management. Furthermore, according to SoSoValue data, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $471 million on Monday, and the US spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of $120 million on Monday. Additionally, according to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) listing announcement, the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) will begin trading on April 8th (Eastern Time) under the ticker symbol "MBST". This is the first spot BTC ETF issued by a major US bank. The product has an annual fee of only 0.14%, lower than BlackRock IBIT's 0.25% and Grayscale GBTC's 0.15%, making it the Bitcoin ETF with the lowest fees currently on the market. The net inflow of funds into ETFs and other crypto assets reflects a slight improvement in investor sentiment, increasing market demand and contributing to the resilience of the crypto market to some extent. IV. Listed treasuries and other institutions continue to buy, injecting liquidity into the market. According to Strategy's official disclosure, Strategy bought 4,871 BTC last week at an average price of approximately $67,718, for a total cost of approximately $329.9 million. As of 2026, Strategy will hold a total of 766,970 BTC, with a total holding cost of approximately $58.02 billion and an average price of approximately $75,644 per BTC. Strategy also stated that since the beginning of this year, the company has increased its Bitcoin holdings by 2.2 times the natural supply in the market, while achieving a 3.7% Bitcoin yield. Year-to-date, the company has accumulated approximately 24,675 BTC, equivalent to approximately $1.7 billion. Ethereum treasury company Bitmine Immersion Technologies disclosed that it increased its holdings by 71,252 ETH last week. Currently, the company's crypto asset holdings include 4,803,334 ETH, 198 BTC, $92 million worth of Eightco Holdings equity, and $200 million worth of Beast Industries shares. In addition, the company has a total of 3,334,637 ETH staked (totaling $7.1 billion at $2,123 per ETH). As a major institutional investor in the crypto market, listed treasuries continue to buy large amounts of crypto asset reserves, injecting significant liquidity into the market and greatly alleviating downward pressure on cryptocurrencies, accumulating strength for a rebound. V. Market Analysis and Interpretation The cryptocurrency and other risk asset markets have been given a brief respite amidst the easing of tensions in the Middle East. How will things develop next? Will the US and Iran be able to reach a peace agreement? Can this reverse the global macroeconomic environment? Let's take a look at the main market analyses. 1. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson stated that the Iran war will create uncertainty and push up US inflation in the short term, but the central bank's current monetary policy stance remains appropriate. Jefferson described the current interest rate level as roughly in a range that neither stimulates nor inhibits the economy. He stated that under the current stance, employment will be supported, and as the effects of tariffs fade, inflation is expected to gradually fall back to the 2% target level. 2. Coinbase Institutional gave a neutral outlook for the market in the second quarter, citing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties such as the Iran conflict as making forecasts highly unreliable. Coinbase cited a Bank of America fund manager survey indicating that cash holdings rose nearly one percentage point in a single month to 4.3%, the fastest accumulation rate in five years. Despite the recent three to four standard deviations drop in the S&P 500, Bitcoin only experienced a one-standard-deviation pullback, demonstrating relative resilience. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $471 million in net inflows on April 6th, marking their strongest single-day performance in six weeks, with BlackRock's IBIT leading the way. Institutional holdings have risen from 24% a year ago to approximately 38%, with hedge funds, pension funds, and others holding a combined total of over $40 billion. 3. Yi Lihua, founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), posted on social media, “The war is confirmed to be over. There are no inside stories, and neither side has any reason to continue fighting. We'll see where the rebound ends and take profits as we go. This year's cryptocurrency market is very similar to 2019. Secondary liquidity has plummeted, primary investment confidence is almost nonexistent, Web3 companies are laying off large numbers of employees, and industry professionals are switching careers. Be greedy when others are fearful. This year is definitely the best time to buy the dip in the secondary market and invest in the primary market, just like in 2019. Institutions that bought the dip in the secondary market and invested in the primary market in 2019 were the biggest winners in the 2020 bull market, and we are working hard to do both.” 4. Eric, Senior Analyst at Bloomberg ETF Balchunas, writing on the X platform, stated that amidst a pressured market environment and frequent macroeconomic headwinds, US baby boomer investors quietly poured approximately $500 million into Bitcoin spot ETFs, partially filling the funding gap since the beginning of the year. However, data shows that the overall net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs this year is still slightly negative, indicating that the market as a whole remains in a wait-and-see mode. This recent round of inflows demonstrates the long-term allocation interest of some traditional capital in Bitcoin ETFs. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost wrote that in the current Bitcoin market dynamics, those most affected are short-term holders (STH), i.e., investors who have held BTC for less than six months. Currently, their cost price is approximately $85,400, significantly higher than the current market price. Therefore, they are currently in an average unrealized loss state of about 19.4%. This situation typically triggers two main behaviors: some investors choose to remain patient and continue holding BTC until they become long-term holders (LTH). (This trend is already evident, with long-term holders increasing their supply by approximately 300,000 BTC.) Another group of investors may panic and choose to exit the market, either cutting their losses or exiting with small profits if they entered later. It is the latter group that often exacerbates market volatility and can trigger "capitulation." Historically, when short-term holders' unrealized losses exceed 25%, this level often corresponds to the early stages of a market bottom. However, these periods are usually accompanied by higher volatility, during which less resilient investors are more likely to be forced out.

6. Arthur Hayes stated on the Coin Stories podcast that he will not put his last dollar into Bitcoin at this time because the Federal Reserve has not yet been forced to expand liquidity. Arthur Hayes believes that tariff policies will lead to inflation and may prompt the US to move towards capital controls, which would be a huge liquidity catalyst for Bitcoin.