BTC 2025 Q3 Outlook: When will the crypto market reach its peak again?

Source: Bitcoin Magazine; Compiled by Wuzhu, Golden Finance

Bitcoin’s journey to 2025 did not bring the explosive bull run surge that many expected. After peaking above $100,000, the sharp pullback to a low of $75,000 in 2025 has sparked debate among investors and analysts about where we are in the Bitcoin cycle. In this analysis, we cut through the noise and use on-chain indicators and macro data to determine whether the Bitcoin bull run remains intact or if a deeper Bitcoin pullback will occur in the third quarter of 2025. Key indicators such as the MVRV Z-score, Value Destroyed Days (VDD), and Bitcoin capital flows provide key insights into where the market will go next.

Is Bitcoin’s 2025 pullback healthy or the end of the bull cycle?

An important starting point for assessing the 2025 Bitcoin cycle is the MVRV Z-score, a trusted on-chain indicator that compares market value to realized value. After reaching 3.36 when Bitcoin peaked at $100,000, the MVRV Z-Score fell to 1.43, consistent with a Bitcoin price drop from $100,000 to $75,000 in 2025. A 30% correction in Bitcoin might have looked concerning, but recent data shows that the MVRV Z-Score has rebounded from its 2025 low of 1.43. Figure 1: MVRV Z-score reflects a potential local bottom in the Bitcoin cycle in 2025. Historically, in previous Bitcoin bull markets (such as 2017 and 2021), MVRV Z-score levels of approximately 1.43 marked local bottoms, not tops. Bitcoin’s pullbacks typically precede the resumption of uptrends, suggesting that the current correction is consistent with healthy bull cycle dynamics. While investor confidence has been shaken, the move fits with historical patterns of Bitcoin’s market cycles.

How Smart Money Shapes the 2025 Bitcoin Bull Run

Another key on-chain metric is the Value Destroyed Days (VDD) multiple, which tracks BTC transaction velocity weighted by holding period. Spikes in VDD suggest that experienced holders are taking profits, while lows suggest that Bitcoin is accumulating. Currently, VDD is in the “green zone,” similar to levels seen in the late stages of a bear market or early in a bull market recovery. Figure 2: VDD Multiples Highlight Long-Term Accumulation of Bitcoin to 2025. Following Bitcoin’s pullback from $100,000, low VDD suggests the end of the profit-taking phase, with long-term holders accumulating funds in anticipation of higher Bitcoin prices in 2025. The Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flows chart further illuminates this trend, breaking down realized capital by coin age. Near the $106,000 peak, new market entrants (<1 month) drove a surge in activity, indicating FOMO-driven buying. Since Bitcoin’s pullback, activity from this cohort has cooled to levels typical of early to mid-bull markets.

In contrast, activity from the 1-2 year holders cohort (typically macro-savvy Bitcoin investors) is increasing and accumulating at lower prices. This shift mirrors Bitcoin’s accumulation pattern in 2020 and 2021, where long-term holders bought into price dips, setting the stage for a bull cycle rally.

Figure 3: Bitcoin cycle capital flows show that BTC will flow to experienced holders in 2025.

Where are we in the Bitcoin market cycle in 2025?

Zooming in, the Bitcoin market cycle can be divided into three stages:

• Bear market stage: Bitcoin deep correction 70-90%.

• Recovery Phase:Recovery to previous all-time highs.

• Bull Market/Exponential Phase:Bitcoin price rises parabolically.

Past bear markets (2015, 2018) lasted 13-14 months, and the most recent Bitcoin bear market also lasted 14 months. Recovery phases typically last 23 to 26 months, and the current 2025 Bitcoin cycle falls within this range. However, unlike previous bull markets, Bitcoin’s breakout of the previous high was followed by a correction, rather than an immediate surge.

Figure 4: Historical Bitcoin Cycle Trend Forecasts Bull Market Peak in Q3 2025.

Bitcoin’s pullback could signal higher lows, setting the stage for an exponential phase of the bull market in 2025. Based on the 9-11 month exponential phase of past cycles, assuming the bull cycle resumes, Bitcoin prices could peak around September 2025.

Macro risks impacting Bitcoin price in Q3 2025

Despite bullish on-chain indicators, Macro headwinds pose a risk to Bitcoin price in 2025. The S&P 500 to Bitcoin correlation chart shows that Bitcoin remains closely correlated with the U.S. stock market. As concerns about a global recession grow, weakness in traditional markets could limit Bitcoin's short-term upside potential. Figure 5: Bitcoin and USD correlation. Monitoring these macro risks is critical because a deteriorating stock market could trigger a deeper correction in Bitcoin in Q3 2025, even if on-chain data remains supportive.

Conclusion: Bitcoin Q3 2025 Outlook

Key on-chain metrics - MVRV Z-scores, Days of Value Destroyed, and Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flows - suggest healthy, cycle-consistent behavior and long-term holder accumulation in the 2025 Bitcoin cycle. While slower and more uneven than past bull runs, the current cycle is consistent with historical Bitcoin market cycle structure. If macro conditions stabilize, Bitcoin appears set for another upswing, potentially peaking in Q3 or Q4 2025.

However, macro risks, including stock market volatility and recession fears, remain a concern.