Bridgewater's Dalio warns: The crypto market has less than a year left to thrive.

Recently, a warning from Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has sparked heated discussions in the financial and crypto communities. Ray Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world's largest hedge funds, managing over $200 billion in assets. He is known for his macroeconomic analysis and policy cycle judgments, particularly his ability to predict market trends from the perspectives of the global economy, monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, and market psychology. He points out that the US political cycle and midterm elections could have a significant impact on the crypto industry, and the window for pro-crypto policies promoted by the Trump administration is rapidly closing. For the cryptocurrency market, this means there's less than a year left with truly actionable opportunities. Dalio's warning centers on the cyclical nature of American politics. Typically, in the first two years after a president takes office, the ruling party has relatively more room to maneuver in Congress, allowing for rapid policy implementation. However, by the midterm elections, the ruling party often faces "punitive votes," potentially losing control of the House of Representatives or the Senate. The Republican Party currently holds a very weak majority in the House, leading by only five seats, meaning the risk of a reversal is extremely high. According to the probability forecasting market Polymarket, the Democrats have a 79% chance of regaining control of the House of Representatives in 2026! Dalio specifically points out that voters' biggest concerns will be affordability, including the cost of living, inflation, rent, interest rates, and healthcare. If these pressures persist, the probability of voters favoring the Democratic Party will increase significantly, thereby weakening Trump's ability to push through policies. This is the most direct reason why the cryptocurrency community is paying close attention to the political situation—the policy window may soon close. For the crypto industry, the most important legislation at present is the CLARITY Crypto Markets Clarity Act. This act covers digital asset exchanges, market structure, and regulatory frameworks, and is central to whether the US crypto industry can obtain institutional support; it is also the most critical piece of legislation for the US crypto industry at present. Because the Republicans hold a very slim majority in the House of Representatives, and the Democrats are expected to regain control of the House in the 2026 midterm elections, some Democratic lawmakers are intentionally delaying the vote on the bill, pushing the approval process until after 2027. The passage of the CLARITY bill directly determines whether the US crypto industry can develop within a predictable institutional framework. If this year is missed, the crypto industry will face a longer period of uncertainty and policy stagnation. This comes at a time when the Republican Party is at its peak, and Trump's executive orders are facing considerable resistance in implementation. For example, a few days ago the U.S. Department of Justice sold 57 bitcoins that the developers had confiscated through Coinbase Prime. This violates President Trump's executive order requiring all confiscated Bitcoin to be transferred to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. In response, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, a long-time supporter of Bitcoin, publicly criticized this practice. Unfortunately, Cynthia Lummis also publicly stated in December 2025 that she would not run for a Senate seat again in 2026 and would leave the Senate after her current term ends. This casts a shadow over the future of the crypto industry.