Author: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise; Translator: AIMan@Golden Finance
Earlier this month, I gave the closing speech on the first day of a national brokerage firm conference. That in itself is worth noting.
The four largest brokerage firms—Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and UBS—manage more than $10 trillion in client assets. In general, these platforms have not yet allowed their advisors to easily access Bitcoin ETFs. But as my invitation to give the keynote speech suggests, this is changing rapidly.
In fact, I suspect that all four brokerage firms will open Bitcoin ETF business by the end of the year. This is one of the reasons why I still expect Bitcoin ETFs to set a record for net inflows this year, even though they have "only" inflows of $3.7 billion so far in 2025 compared to $35 billion in 2024.
But I'm not writing this article to discuss brokerage firms. Instead, I want to share the story of an audience member.
"What's left for Bitcoin?"
The best part of the speech was at the end. You walk off the stage—hopefully to applause—and are usually surrounded by people who want to ask follow-up questions. Those are the most valuable questions.
After this event, one man patiently waited for 20 or 30 people to take their turn asking questions. When they were done, he said:
“I listened to what you said and it made sense. But I just can’t get over it.”
It’s a common sentiment. People understand the logic of Bitcoin intellectually and find it attractive, but there’s always something stopping them from buying it.
After exploring his concerns, we found that “something”: He was worried about what would happen if everyone stopped believing in Bitcoin.
“If the music stopped, how much would it be worth?” he asked.
The answer, of course, is zero. If no one in the world wants to hold Bitcoin, it’s worth zero.
I pointed out that the same is true for gold and other assets, but he insisted that the situation is different. He may be right. Gold at least has a physical existence, while Bitcoin… has nothing.
To be honest, I’ve had the same thought before, and I suspect most Bitcoin supporters do too. Bitcoin’s intangibility is a real challenge.
My advice: write it down
My new friend was about to leave, still looking conflicted, when I asked him a simple question:
What else would it take to buy BTC?
In other words, what would he need to see to believe that Bitcoin is here to stay?
For some people, the way they answer this question will make them realize they will never buy Bitcoin. If you’re waiting for Bitcoin to be more accepted than gold… or for its volatility to approach zero… you’ll never buy Bitcoin.
But if you don’t have those obstacles, it’s worth asking: What else would it take to buy BTC?
● Institutional custody? Today, public companies like Coinbase and well-known brands like Fidelity are custodial Bitcoin, and financial giants like BNY Mellon are not far behind.
● Institutional trading? Today, Bitwise is trading with established firms like Jane Street and Cumberland/DRW.
● Institutional adoption? Nine of the top ten hedge funds in the world hold Bitcoin, as do Emory University ($11 billion endowment), the State Teachers’ Retirement System of Texas ($210 billion AUM), and investment giants like Ray Dalio and Stan Druckenmiller and many others.
● Large asset managers? How about BlackRock and Invesco?
● Corporate adoption? There’s Strategy, Block, Tesla, and over eighty public companies.
● Convenient access? Now there are ETFs.
● Model adoption? BlackRock now recommends 2% of investors’ portfolios in Bitcoin.
● Regulatory stability? Market structure legislation is expected to pass Congress this year.
● Government adoption? The US is building a strategic reserve of Bitcoin.
Whatever it is, write it down. Because if you look back a few years ago, the things we thought we needed — like the US government holding Bitcoin or the world's largest asset managers accepting this asset — seemed out of reach. But here we are.
My friend thought for a moment, took a deep breath, and said, "I'm buying Bitcoin."
I imagine many people will come to the same conclusion this year.