Recently, HTX Research, a research institute under Huobi HTX, released the latest research report "New Macro Changes and Bitcoin Outlook: In-depth Perspective on Liquidity, Risk Preference, Policy Game and Investment Strategy", which comprehensively analyzes the impact of the global macroeconomic environment on the Bitcoin market and provides investors with a clear market outlook and investment guidance.
Bitcoin Market Outlook under the Macro Environment: Liquidity and Market Risk Preference Level
The current global macro environment is complex and changeable. The Fed's expectations of interest rate cuts have cooled, quantitative tightening (QT) continues, the return of the US Treasury's TGA account and the Bank of Japan's expectations of interest rate hikes have jointly led to tight liquidity in the short term. Fed Chairman Powell insists on the "data first" position. The strong US job market (non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April and the unemployment rate was 4.2%) and the potential inflation shock of tariffs (CPI in the third quarter may return to above 3%) have reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts from three times to two times (September and December) this year. Liquidity pressure has limited the upside of risky assets such as Bitcoin. In addition, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and the unwinding of yen carry trades have further tightened global liquidity. In the short term (next 1-3 months), market liquidity is expected to be tight, and the upside of risky assets such as Bitcoin may be limited, but the optimism at the risk appetite level is expected to continue in the short term. Be wary of technical pullbacks and fluctuations caused by sudden news.
In the medium term (3-12 months), liquidity will gradually improve, market risk appetite faces greater uncertainty, and the Bitcoin market will have both opportunities and challenges. If the Fed starts to cut interest rates and end QT in the second half of 2025, coupled with the coordinated easing of global central bank policies, liquidity is expected to improve marginally, providing a rebound window for Bitcoin. The progress of negotiations after the 90-day buffer period for China-US tariffs, the easing of geopolitical tensions between Russia, Ukraine, India and Pakistan, the continued entry of institutions (global listed companies hold more than 688,000 bitcoins, accounting for 3.28% of the total supply), and the exploration of "strategic bitcoin reserves" policies at the federal and state levels in the United States may boost market risk appetite and support Bitcoin prices. However, if inflation exceeds expectations or geopolitical risks escalate, risk aversion may put pressure on the market. Investors need to pay close attention to the Fed's policies, macro data, tariff negotiations and regulatory trends, and adjust their strategies flexibly.
Positive signals of crypto-friendly policies are ushered in in the policy game: stablecoin regulation may encounter a period of relaxation?
Policy games are profoundly affecting the crypto market. On May 21, the Hong Kong Legislative Council passed the Stablecoin Bill, which established a licensing system for issuers of fiat stablecoins in Hong Kong and improved the regulatory framework for virtual asset activities.
The more profound and complex policy impacts occurred in the United States. The "Big Beautiful Tax Law" plan promoted by the Trump administration in the United States (a tax cut of $5 trillion in the next 10 years) stimulated market sentiment in the short term, but the widening fiscal deficit and debt ceiling issues may cause liquidity fluctuations. At the regulatory level, the U.S. Senate has promoted stablecoin legislation-the negotiations on the "GENIUS Act" stablecoin bill have reached a 90% consensus, and it is planned to provide standardized guidance for the stablecoin market through a regulatory framework that is 100% backed by high-quality assets. In addition, the exploration of tokenization of U.S. stocks has accelerated, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and traditional financial institutions (such as JPMorgan Chase) have actively laid out. It is expected that the scale of tokenization of real-world assets will reach $18.9 trillion in 2030, expanding new scenarios for digital assets. The U.S. federal and state legislative attempts on "strategic bitcoin reserves" (such as the New Hampshire H.B. 302 Act) further enhance the strategic position of Bitcoin and provide policy endorsement for institutional entry.
Follow the trend: Huobi HTX launched multiple compliant stablecoins such as USD1 and provided zero-fee exchange services
Under the expectation of global policy easing and the trend of regulatory transparency, the importance of stablecoins as the liquidity foundation and value anchor of the crypto market has become increasingly prominent. Huobi HTX has seized market opportunities and recently launched a number of compliant stablecoins, including USD1 (World Liberty Financial USD), USDQ (Quantoz), EURQ (Quantoz), USDR (StablR), EURR (StablR), etc., to meet users' diversified investment needs and improve capital efficiency. At the same time, to celebrate the launch of USD1 and lower the threshold for user participation, Huobi HTX has specially launched a zero-fee exchange service. Until 23:59 (GMT+8) on December 31, 2025, the USD1/USDT spot trading pair will enjoy a 0-fee discount. Users do not need to bear additional costs during the exchange process, maximizing the efficiency of capital utilization. Huobi HTX is committed to providing safe, efficient and high-quality crypto financial services to users around the world.
In addition, in terms of investment strategy, HTX Research's research report analyzed a number of stablecoin financial products, including Backpack's USD lending annualized return of about 4.94%, Resolv's USR annualized return of up to 15%, Aave+Pendle's annualized return of about 10%, Falcon's USDf annualized return of more than 10%, and Coinshift's csUSDL annualized return of about 10%.
The research report finally pointed out that the Bitcoin market needs to be vigilant about liquidity pressure and volatility risks in the short term, and is expected to rebound in the medium and long term driven by clear policies and institutional entry. Huobi HTX will continue to keep up with market and policy trends to help users seize opportunities and steadily increase value in the complex and ever-changing crypto market.
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the exclusive research department of HTX Group, responsible for in-depth analysis, comprehensive reports, and professional evaluations of a wide range of fields such as cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends. HTX Research is committed to providing data-based insights and strategic foresight, and plays a key role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting smart decisions in the digital asset field. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research always stands at the forefront of innovation, leads the development of industry thinking, and promotes a deep understanding of changing market dynamics.