Bitcoin is just one step away from 100,000. When will it "knock on the door" again after falling back?

Source: Jinshi Data

Last week, Bitcoin almost broke through the $100,000 mark, and the crypto market held its breath, but ultimately failed to achieve this historic breakthrough due to stagnant momentum and a rapid decline.

On Friday, the price of Bitcoin hit a record high of $99,588, but fell back before breaking the six-digit mark. As of 13:00 on Wednesday, Bitcoin was hovering around $92,500, and had fallen more than 5% this week. Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said that for investors who have held Bitcoin since the last bull market, $100,000 is a psychologically significant selling point.

He pointed out in an interview that Bitcoin holders may foresee a pullback near this price, so they choose to sell part of their positions to lock in profits. He also mentioned that this behavior also occurred at Bitcoin's previous highs.

"A similar pattern occurred in March when Bitcoin was hovering near its 2021 all-time high of $69,000. Bitcoin hovered at that price for nearly seven days before finally breaking through... When prices approached this level, many participants in the previous cycle began to take profits as they expected a possible pullback."

Other analysts believe that Bitcoin's deep pullback may also be attributed to other factors. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, mentioned that the easing of geopolitical tensions between Lebanon and Israel has weakened investor demand for safe-haven assets such as Bitcoin.

When can Bitcoin hit $100,000?

Matt Mena believes that if the price of Bitcoin continues to fall, it may fall to $80,000. He said that options traders who focus on cryptocurrencies also support this view, and a large number of options contracts expiring in December are betting that Bitcoin will fall to $80,000.

"The $80,000 support level may be the limit of this pullback, which may actually be beneficial to the health of the market... Bitcoin often retests previous support levels to consolidate the upward force and clean out leveraged positions and short-term speculators."

However, before falling to this level, Bitcoin will first test several support levels above this price. Mena pointed out that the next key support level below $90,000 is $87,000. Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to resume its rise after falling to this level. Mena still expects Bitcoin to rebound before the end of the year, and the holiday season may drive Bitcoin to the $110,000 to $120,000 range.

"During holiday gatherings, investors often share their enthusiasm for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies with family and friends, discuss their gains and show their profits and losses... This can stimulate curiosity and interest, attracting new investors to this space. We have seen this happen many times in the past few years."

He also expects crypto investors to "run ahead of the presidential inauguration in January next year, similar to what happened before Election Day in November. At that time, investors drove crypto prices up due to excitement about Trump's eventual victory.

"This early activity could generate the momentum needed to break through $100,000."

Investors are looking forward to Trump's second term. The president-elect has publicly supported cryptocurrencies, hinted at the possibility of creating a national Bitcoin reserve, and is reportedly screening candidates for cryptocurrency-related White House positions.