Binance Alpha Bull Market: A One-Sided Game Led by Market Makers

Author: Bennie Source: X, @0xBenniee In the current market environment of insufficient liquidity during the interest rate cut cycle, Binance Alpha's bull run continues: an unknown project can often quietly achieve multiple increases in value in a short period of time. This article will discuss the market-making strategy of the initial Alpha + Perp offering from a market maker's perspective, as well as the inner monologue of the market maker, achieving "dancing with the market maker." Binance Alpha acts as a natural liquidity pool, attracting enormous attention and retail investor resources on its debut day, while also attracting a group of native Alpha users to participate in trading. They may choose to dump the market or buy in, and each "Alpha worker" is making their own bets from a different perspective. But if we shift to the perspective of the project owners and market makers, their underlying thinking is more straightforward: I've already paid 1–2% of my stake to launch Alpha, and I've also spent the extra effort to open Perp. Having paid this much "protection fee," the probability of subsequent abandonment is low. This is why we saw the subsequent "Alpha on-chain bull run." In reality, large-scale distribution is difficult to achieve solely through the Alpha spot market. Market makers and market makers must leverage Perp to continuously increase OI to attract more retail investors, turning the trading landscape into a "casino." Today's project logic has shifted from the "narrative-driven" model of the past to a completely capital-driven one: whoever has the deeper stakes can drive a more aggressive market. As long as enough gamblers enter the market, market makers can continuously create volatility and reap profits.

To summarize:

• Alpha provides a natural pool of attention and a base of initial users;

• Perp is the core tool for market makers/market makers to increase OI and attract traffic.

For market makers, the key logic on the launch day is:

• Alpha → Accumulate funds + build positions;

• Perp → Pump up the market + distribute. "Taking the initial public offering of a new coin as an example, let's see how market makers profit through Alpha + Perp." Alpha goes online at 8:00 AM (UTC), and Perp goes online at 10:30 AM, leaving market makers with only a two-and-a-half-hour window to collect their shares. This period is when market makers and retail investors compete for shares. Active investors will take the shares, but if these shares are snatched up by a large number of free-rider retail investors, the subsequent market maker's cost of pumping the market will increase. (From a market perspective, the primary market-making force on Alpha is primarily active MMs. According to industry consensus, their margin allocations typically range in the millions of dollars, while spot liquidity is relatively ample.) After Perp launches, market makers will inflate open interest (OI) to attract more retail investors, turning the game into a "gambling table that gets more lively the more people sit." Perp's core role isn't simply to provide hedging tools; it's to amplify market attention and trading participation. Furthermore, market makers often collaborate with relevant KOLs, favorable news, or exchange-sponsored marketing campaigns to further generate buzz and attract more attention. Whether long or short, these positions essentially contribute to market liquidity, providing market makers with greater maneuvering space and a more profitable source of profit. As shown in the figure, after Perp went online, the OI quickly surged and remained stable at a high level. In the early stages, market makers typically avoid using a sharp price increase or a violent market crash to sell shares. This is because premature market crashes make it impossible to redistribute the shares at the same or even lower cost, which would increase their overall market manipulation costs. The market makers' core goal is to deliver as many shares as possible to retail investors at the highest possible price to ensure a smooth distribution. During this period of price manipulation, the funding rate often provides a key indicator. By observing changes in funding rates, market makers can determine whether market sentiment is overheating and make detailed optimizations based on this. For example, when funding rates surge abnormally, market makers can use spot-futures hedging or short-term funding rate arbitrage to reduce their holding costs and further improve overall returns.

  

  The spot market is all in the hands of market makers. As long as the market makers do not dump the market, through the funding rate market, during the rally from September 12th to September 15th, OI continued to increase, and the funding rate soared several times.

  • Peak: 0.3–0.4% / 4h (approximately 270%–360% annualized);

  • On September 16, when the OI remained high and long positions were seriously accumulated, the market maker chose to dump the market sharply, distributing spot goods while making profits on short positions:

    • The price dropped from 0.058 to 0.035, a drop of about 40%;

    • The market maker’s cost range was 0.015–0.02, and the average delivery price was about 0.045–0.05;

    • The profit margin for each transaction was about +150%–200%. (Ideally, the returns from on-chain liquidity pools are not factored into the overall calculation. Specific strategies vary between market makers.) Key Points for Working with Market Makers Early on, if a project demonstrates high market manipulation and a high level of community FUD, it's often worth paying more attention. Grand Slam projects, however, are inherently more difficult to predict due to their complex chip structures, so caution is advised. The simultaneous launch of Alpha and Perp on the first day typically indicates ample liquidity and potentially more volatile price fluctuations. Trying to estimate the market maker's profit during each rally and pullback will help you understand their trading logic.

    • When Alpha opens, keep an eye on Pancake V3's pricing. If the opening price is too high, it might be safer to wait for a more appropriate rhythm.

    Conclusion

    The Alpha+Perp launch model is reshaping the current market landscape. On the surface, this is a narrative-driven bull market for new coins, but in reality, it's more like a structured game orchestrated by market makers. Alpha provides chip accumulation and initial traffic, Perp amplifies liquidity and volatility, and OI and funding rates become key tools for market makers to manipulate the market. Retail investors may be able to seize short-term opportunities, but it's more important to understand the underlying logic: How far the market can go depends not on how compelling the story is, but on the depth of funding and the precision of the pacing.