Attention is increasing and trading volume is skyrocketing. Is Base Season coming soon?

Written by: Zeneca  Compiled by: Yangz, Techub News

Translator's note: With the popularity of AI coin issuance platforms Clanker and Virtuals, the industry's attention to the Base ecosystem has "surged". On November 26, local time, the transaction volume on Base rose sharply to about 11.36 million transactions, the first time in history that the daily transaction volume exceeded 10 million transactions (more than half of the transactions were withdrawn. Base protocol leader Jesse Pollak responded that the withdrawal of transactions was caused by the preemptive robots trying to frantically capture MEV, and plans to further expand Base). In addition, Solana ecosystem Memecoin leader pump.fun was recently "bombed" by the community due to a live broadcast, and for a time, there seemed to be signs that funds were flowing to ecosystems such as Base. Artemis data shows that Base has received $815 million in on-chain inflows in the past month, ranking first among all chains. In contrast, Solana has received only $304 million in net inflows. So, is Base season coming?

If you have been following me on Twitter recently, you may have noticed that I have been posting more and more about Base. There are many reasons for this, but it would be too long to write a tweet, so here is the blog.

In fact, the explosion of the Base ecosystem is nothing new to me. I analyzed Base when it was first launched more than a year ago, and if you know nothing about Base, then I recommend reading that article. In addition, I also introduced Farcaster at the beginning of this year, and if you are not familiar with it, then I recommend reading it.

In this article, I will explain why I am still optimistic about Base, what I am focusing on, and how to get involved. My goal is to provide an ecosystem overview and share some indicators that make me increasingly confident that "Base season" is coming (if not already here).

However, before we dive in, it should be stated that most of the content covered in this blog post and most of what exists in crypto at the moment (especially about Memecoins) is extremely risky, a huge bubble, and almost everything will crash. I am trying to trade like everyone else, and when I think the top has been reached, I will sell my position. At present, I am profitable.

Remember, don't be a stubborn "diamond hand" community member, and don't be encouraged by others to hold. You have to do what is best for you, and if you make enough money to change your life, you sell it, withdraw the money, and actually improve your life. I have been through so much in this industry that I have to add this disclaimer before I go into details. The following are my opinions, which may be wrong, may be inappropriate, and there may be many other reasons. DYOR!

Reason 1: Coinbase is awesome

Coinbase is one of the largest and most important cryptocurrency exchanges (and companies) in the world. If Coinbase lists a Memecoin, Memecoin traders everywhere will be thrilled. This is because Coinbase provides easy access to tokens for the "average person" or average crypto enthusiast, so they know what a Coinbase listing means for the price (usually - up!).

Coinbase's mission is to increase economic freedom in the world and bring 1 billion users to the on-chain world. There is no doubt that Coinbase would be happy for the industry if there were 1 billion blockchain users, but it is clear that they are specifically trying to get users to join their own Base chain.

In my opinion, most people still underestimate the size of the Coinbase marketing machine and how important a company they are. As the largest exchange in the United States, they have been fighting legal and political battles on behalf of the entire cryptocurrency industry.

Last year, the SEC decided to sue Coinbase, which was one of the few rare moments I have experienced in this industry. Almost everyone united behind the same cause, and nothing can unite strength better than a common enemy.

In addition, Coinbase is also special. They look like a real company with good people from top to bottom. This is not to say that other exchanges are not like this or cannot be like this, but the atmosphere at Coinbase seems to be particularly good.

In general, Coinbase is awesome.

Reason 2: ETH Season is coming

Speaking of Base, we cannot fail to mention Ethereum, which makes people love and hate it. In my opinion, ETH Season is also coming.

I know it’s popular to complain about Ethereum now, but to be honest, I really think it’s a minority of people on CT who are advocating this statement. Most of the real experts don’t spend all day on CT. In fact, every chain will be complained about, but I think Ethereum has been complained about a little too much. I don’t deny that Ethereum has "lost" to Solana in many aspects, especially in the past 12-18 months. It is slow, costly, and its ecology seems fragmented among all L2 (and L3). However, Ethereum is still the second-highest blockchain by market value, nearly 4 times that of the third place. Among the 328 blockchains tracked by DeFiLlama, Ethereum still accounts for more than 50% of TVL.

Ethereum's price action has lagged behind basically everything else this year, but I think that's about to change.

Here's a chart of ETH/BTC over the past 5 years or so. It's clear that ETH hasn't had a great time over the last few years! However, anyone who understands charts, markets, and investing will tell you that you should be buying at times like this, not selling.

The time to swap ETH for BTC or SOL was 18-24 months ago. I’m not necessarily saying that now is the time to swap BTC or SOL for ETH, but it’s definitely a better time than at any time in the past few years.

“Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.” Yes, I’m quoting this old Buffett quote again, but to be honest, it’s just so accurate and applicable. The best time to buy SOL was during the peak of fear after the FTX crash, and I admit that I missed that opportunity (at least relatively speaking, I entered the market when SOL was around $40).

I have always been a staunch long on ETH. This may be incomprehensible to short-term traders, but there is a reason why I have been stubbornly bullish on ETH. Many of the reasons people don’t like Ethereum have to do with usage friction, such as gas costs and slow transfer speeds. However, L2 solves a lot of problems and catches up in areas where they were lacking.

Reason 3: Friction is disappearing fast

One ​​of the reasons Solana has been so successful recently is their focus on consumer applications and end-user experience. They have made it as frictionless as possible, and it is undeniable that it is much easier for the average person to interact with Solana than with any other major chain. Low fees and fast transactions are one thing, and mobile-friendly wallets like Phantom and apps like Moonshot have also had a huge impact on new user acquisition.

Add to that the popularity of Memecoin, especially pump.fun, and the resulting network effects, and none of this is surprising.

But I think many of the above advantages are coming or will come soon for Base. First, Phantom has announced support for Base.

I can't tell you how many conversations I've heard in dozens of discord/tg chatrooms over the past few weeks: "Ah, I only have SOL in my Phantom wallet and I don't know how to use Base." In my opinion, this is just a turning point in the future where we will see more protocols/apps start to support Base, and more Base native apps will appear.

Also, many people are suffering from Ethereum PTSD after experiencing the crazy gas period in 2021 and the poor UI/UX of MetaMask. They have not experienced using wallets such as Rabby, Rainbow, Phantom, etc. on Base, nor have they experienced Base's own native Coinbase wallet (any USDC held has a native yield of 4.7%).

Reason 4: Investing is about investing in people

When it comes to traditional investing in companies or projects, I believe in "investing is about investing in people". The reason why Base is so outstanding is inseparable from the team behind it.

Brian Armstrong often meets with Trump to discuss cryptocurrency policy. He is definitely a powerful figure. If you are interested, you can read this 2020 article and try to recall what the world was like at that time, how most large technology companies did in taking political positions, and how different Brian's approach was at Coinbase.

In addition to Brian, Jesse Pollak, the head of Base, is also worth paying attention to.

To reference and showcase Jesse Pollak as a person, I went through his tweets and saved dozens of them. I recommend you all check them out, but if you don’t have time, here are a few of my favorites:

Jesse went on a 21-day world tour to meet with buliders and project leaders.

Try to get into Instagram and TikTok.

On understanding meme culture (video recommended).

These are just two of the many amazing people working to achieve Base’s goals. I’m relieved to support this team.

Reason 5: Excellent Metrics

In my opinion, the most important metric for predicting whether a chain will be successful is the number of builders/developers creating applications and whether there is capital flowing in. The metrics related to Base show a significant increase in its ecological activity and a large influx of funds.

Base's net capital inflow over the past 3 months is almost the same as Solana. And from last week, other chains have been left far behind by Base.

In addition, the transaction volume on Base has also been steadily increasing, and has even "surged" in recent days.

In the past few days, many AI agents in the Base ecosystem have also been highly followed on Twitter.

Source: cookie.fun

Overall, it is clear that traffic and mind share are shifting to Base. As to whether this will continue or is a temporary blip, we don’t know yet. Many people are saying that this is just temporary and Solana will maintain the most attention during this cycle. I don’t agree with this statement, but I must not be self-righteous and think that I must be right and others must be wrong. The indicators look good, but indicators can also be temporary.

Reason 6: Airdrop speculation

Before the statement, this is pure speculation. The Base team has made it clear that they will not launch a token, but so have Optimism and many other chains.

With the legal and regulatory landscape changing significantly, I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility of Base airdropping tokens. However, I wouldn’t take it too seriously either, and I would personally only view it as a “nice to have”. I recommend using Base as you normally would and trying it around, as this is often the best way to get airdrops when the protocol launches.

Those are the 6 reasons why I’m bullish on Base and think Base season is coming. Below, we’ll take a deeper look at some of the projects worth watching.

Focus 1: Virtuals Protocol

In short, Virtuals Protocol is a launchpad for on-chain AI agents. The protocol believes that "AI agents are not slaves, but productive assets; AI agents are not passive tools, but income-generating assets that users can invest in and co-own, just as individuals can own shares in a company. These agents can play a role in different environments, such as Alcompanions, non-separable characters (NPCs) in platforms such as Roblox, or virtual influencers on social media platforms such as TikTok, and they will play a key role in reshaping the virtual economy."

Over the past few months, AI has been slowly and steadily expanding its applications, starting to accelerate a few weeks ago and starting to rise parabolically in recent days.

Needless to say, I think everyone should know that AI is the main trend in cryptocurrency at present, and it is likely to be a mainstream trend and field for the rest of this cycle. We have seen the crazy rise of AI Memecoins such as GOAT and ZEREBRO on Solana, but the market value of the top AI tokens and agents on Virtuals is currently only a small part of the Solana ecosystem. If you look at the funding flows and are looking forward to ETH Season and Base Season, I think the Virtuals ecosystem is one of the most interesting places to watch.

The two tokens I personally like the most and hold the most are AIXBT and VADER, in addition to the native token VIRTUAL. Although I own tokens of about 20 agents on the platform, I think there are many other agents whose tokens will also perform well.

You can find the newly issued Virtual AI agent tokens here (you can also issue your own tokens). In addition, I also recommend reading the full whitepaper (I have started asking everyone to read it again) to fully understand the protocol. Alternatively, you can read a great thread about Virtuals last month. The thread provides a high-level overview in plain language.

Focus 2: Farcaster

Base and Farcaster complement each other to a large extent. While Farcaster has supported many chains, Base has been leading the pack. As you can see from this chart, Base has accounted for 60-80% of all on-chain transactions for Farcaster users for most of this year, and in recent days, that number has even reached over 95%.

Specific to Farcaster, Clanker and Anoncast are the two most watched agents.

Clanker is an AI agent deployed on Farcaster that allows anyone to create a token by simply @ing the agent and asking for it. Clanker injects its own funds into the liquidity pool and generates fees for the creator. People see it as the pump.fun of Base, but I don't think that's a good comparison. To track new Clanker token issuance, you can check out this website.

Anoncast is particularly cool, allowing people to post 100% anonymously on Farcaster and even Twitter using zero-knowledge proof technology (I wrote about this last year). You can post through this website, but you need to hold anon tokens.

As developers continue to try various new implementations, it is very necessary to pay attention to and get in the Farcaster "trenches".

Recommend watching ThreadGuy's interview with Dan Romero, one of the founders of Farcaster.

Focus 3: Old-school tokens, paganism, traditional memes, etc.

While most of the attention is currently focused on the above two places, and AI-related tokens occupy most of the attention, I think some of the old-school tokens on Farcaster are still worth paying attention to. They have been around longer and have some die-hard communities. There are a lot of these tokens, and you can find some good old-line tokens by browsing the Base page on Dexscreener and sorting by market cap.

I feel that if we do have Base season, at some point people's attention will shift back to cute animals and traditional memes instead of AI/Farcaster (or, perhaps in parallel with it).

While the Virtuals ecosystem has exploded recently, many of these tokens have seen varying degrees of decline in the same time period. Going back to the old saying "be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful", the less-watched ones may be more worthy of attention.

Focus 4: Other Random Possibilities

I was going to write a whole section here, but stumbled across a great tweet that covers 10 apps worth trying, 10 ways to earn on-chain income, 10 organizations worth joining, and 10 articles worth reading. So, instead of rambling, check out the tweet.

There are a near-endless amount of other interesting things to watch on Base, most of which I can't cover. These are just some of the things I've personally been watching over the past few weeks, but I encourage everyone to explore and find something you like.

How to Interact with Base

I've received questions from a lot of people who don't even know how to start interacting with Base, so here's a crash course and some tips.

If you have funds in your wallet on Ethereum, you can use a site like Relay or Bungee to crosschain to Base. These sites are very easy to use and cheap, and the crosschain usually takes only about a minute.

If you have funds in your wallet on Solana, you can also use Relay to crosschain, or Phantom Wallet also has a crosschain option now.

If you want to trade on Base, you can be a fool like me and not use a trading bot in 90% of the cases. However, you can also use a bot, and there are some bots that support Base now, and more bots should be coming soon. The two most popular bots are BullX and Photon.

The main DEXs for buying and selling tokens on Base are Aerodrome and Uniswap. Personally, I prefer to use the token aggregator LlamaSwap as it finds the cheapest route for me and gets the best price.

The Virtuals token works a little differently as all AI agents can only trade with the native VIRTUAL token. The easiest way to trade is through their website, but it is also possible to use LlamaSwap to exchange Virtuals tokens as long as you choose KyberSwap as your DEX.

If you are looking for a wallet for all Base/EVM tokens, I personally recommend using Rabby, but I have heard that Rainbow Wallet is also good. Of course, Coinbase has its own wallet, but to be honest, it's not up to the level of the other two wallets in terms of functionality. (Or am I just too dumb?)

Some Thoughts on Solana, Base, and Chain Competition

I've always thought it's stupid to take chain competition too seriously. Competition can be friendly, like the United States and Canada, or Australia and New Zealand. We can make fun of each other, joke about Solana's outage, Ethereum's high transaction costs, and "Cardano is just Cardano".

At the end of the day, if you're here to make money (which I guess 99% of people are), then you should keep an open mind, try it, and go with the flow.

If you care less about making money and more about the future of finance and a decentralized and censorship-free future, then you should stick to your point of view.

Within this category, you’ll find various degrees of maximalism, like the BTC maxis who think anything other than Bitcoin is a bane of the industry, the ETH maxis who think Solana is a disgrace to the industry, and the Solana maxis who think ETH/Base is garbage to the industry. Even the Bitcoin maxis are split, with one group hating ETFs and MicroStrategy, and another group loving them.

So no matter where you stand, you’ll find a group of people who think you’re stupid as hell. This is life, you can let it play out, or you can be like me and just follow the money, follow the builders, follow the attention, and most importantly, follow your curiosity.

I recommend you do the same. The best alpha is not found by following my curiosity, my articles, or other people’s articles, the best alpha is found by following your own curiosity, going down the rabbit hole, and thinking for yourself. It has always been this way, and it will always be this way.