Author: Stacy Muur Source: @stacymuur Translation: Shan Ouba, Golden Finance
In 2016, when I first came into contact with Web3, I was attracted by this new economic model. At that time, I bought my first Bitcoin for $600 and sold it for $1,000, thinking I was a savvy investor. I earned incentives on Steemit, participated in early protocols as a contributor, and introduced friends to the world of cryptocurrency. But over time, I realized that I was just lucky and that I made money not because of technology or knowledge.
In the process, I also lost a lot of money. I got into revenge trading, encountered scams, failed to hedge risks, and failed to profit at the right time.
Today, I want to share some lessons learned from years of research, analysis, and reflection on Web3. If you read carefully, I believe these experiences can be used to your advantage.
1. Markets drive hype
This month I published an article titled "The Hidden Power of Prediction Markets: A Touchstone for the World" outlining Delphi's latest report on prediction markets. Highly recommended reading, it is one of the best Delphi reports I have ever seen.
The report quotes Vibhu:
The rules of CT (Crypto Twitter) are very simple:
When a token goes up, it is discussed, analyzed, philosophized, posted to Twitter space, celebrated, venture-funded and called the future;
When a token goes down, it is considered a scam, a bottomless pit, dead, devalued, canceled, and everyone should go to jail.
This phenomenon does exist. Once the token is online, the interest in a protocol or category depends directly on its price movement. We have observed this many times with SOL, AVAX, SUI meme coins, DePIN tokens, and even Bitcoin.
For many years, I have avoided buying tokens when prices are high, fearing that I would buy them at a high price. Now I understand that it is usually easier to make money by buying assets that have just started to rise and have not yet been hotly discussed on platforms such as Reddit or X (Twitter).
2. VCs favor marketization
Friends who follow my content on the X platform know that I often mention fundamentals and returns as the key to evaluating the sustainability of protocols and product-market fit.
But recently, while researching Web2 companies vs. Web3 brands, I realized something important:
VCs are not investing in Web3 projects because they expect profits.
They know you will buy these tokens at a higher fully diluted valuation (FDV) at the Token Generation Event (TGE).
VCs are not looking for product-market fit, but hype and marketability.They invest in concepts and keywords that are easy to market, and the longer the marketability cycle, the higher the FDV.
This model has led to the "low circulation, high FDV" phenomenon of many new first-level token issuances. Most of these companies have no actual revenue, and the token supply will be fully unlocked before their annual revenue reaches even 1/10 of the FDV.
The core lesson? Unfortunately, market narratives are far more important than fundamentals.
3. You don’t have a “personal opinion”
Here’s a simple test: If I asked you to join the MegaETH presale, would you agree? Even if it’s just a one-way conversation, if you’ve heard of MegaETH, the answer is likely to be “yes”.
This is not surprising. MegaETH is backed by Buterin, and there’s a lot of discussion, with many calling it “the next big thing in Ethereum scaling.”
But if you’ve never heard of MegaETH and don’t have a well-known backer, would you still join?
Your opinion is influenced, even if you don’t realize it. Any discussion about it shapes your perception, even if you don’t read the content in depth.
So as a marketer, I usually have each blogger promote the brand multiple times when planning an event. We think in interesting ways: the first mention is often ignored, the second has a 60% chance of being ignored, and the third has only a 20% chance of being ignored.
The more common something is on the timeline, the more it sparks interest. When you see something frequently but don't engage with it, you create "fear of missing out" (FOMO).
Your "opinion" - all your beliefs, opinions, and even criticisms - actually reflect the content you consume.
4. You can't participate in all narratives at the same time
Web3 has a huge amount of information: traders, passive income seekers, airdrop hunters, early protocol researchers, meme coin enthusiasts, fundamental analysts, etc., all output information in the same data center, as well as news and analysis reports on projects.
The information explosion is overwhelming, and if you try to participate in every project, you will find it difficult to engage effectively.
I am not afraid of people who have practiced 10,000 moves once, but I am afraid of people who have practiced one move 10,000 times. - Bruce Lee
The flood of information often makes people feel underexposed. I know some skilled perpetual futures traders who lost money in the meme coin craze - they were good at trading perpetual futures, but not good at meme coins.
The best strategy? Master what you are best at, while also touching on some areas that you hope to improve in the long term.
To deal with the feeling of being underexposed, I adopted a strategy of not participating in meme coin trading on the first day, which is too time-consuming. Every time I see a post about an early meme coin or a new million-dollar trading strategy, I click the "three dots" in the upper right corner of the tweet and select "Not interested in this post". This really improves your timeline significantly, trust me.
5. Losses are a catalyst for growth
It’s hard to separate emotion from rationality and avoid getting emotionally swayed by trading results—but if you always do this, you’re a gambler, not an investor.
Every mistake and loss is an opportunity to grow. Record and analyze them, add timestamps, and make plans for the next step. This approach is the best way to shift from a gambler’s mentality to an investor’s mentality.
Remember: every situation has a pattern of winning, but very few situations lead to losses. Analyzing and recording every loss significantly reduces the likelihood of future losses.
When I worked at a hedge fund in 2020, I observed how professional traders operated: they performed a lot of data analysis before trading, but also conducted in-depth research when exiting—regardless of whether the result was a win or a loss.
6. Master Options Trading
In the Web3 space, options trading has a small fraction of the volume of futures trading. This is mainly because many market participants lack relevant experience, which is in stark contrast to traditional markets.
If you are an active trader, it is crucial to study options trading. Although options trading may seem a bit complicated at first, it is definitely worth the time to master them. In just a week or so, you can explore various options hedging strategies and find the one that works for you.
Options can significantly reduce losses. Although losses are inevitable, you will be more relaxed when you have hedged your positions.
I hope these experiences can bring you some inspiration. If you apply them to your daily practice, I believe your efficiency will be improved.
Find high-quality data, dig out original insights, and master the areas you are passionate about. I firmly believe that the future of Web3 is bright. It is never too late to learn, analyze and explore.
Catherine
Weatherly
Anais
Kikyo