Author: Yashu Gola, CoinTelegraph; Compiled by: Baishui, Golden Finance
The price of BTC has risen 55% so far in 2024, including a 12.50% increase in October. Better-than-expected Wall Street earnings have led to an overall improvement in risk sentiment, driving the stock's recent gains.
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
In addition, investors are increasingly considering the possibility of a November rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the rising likelihood of crypto-friendly Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election has further bolstered optimism.
Fundamentally, Bitcoin appears well-positioned to enter a bull cycle through the remainder of 2024 and beyond. Meanwhile, certain technical and on-chain indicators are pointing to a similar upside outlook.
The first sign that Bitcoin is entering a new bull cycle comes from its two-month logarithmic chart, which was shared by independent market analyst Coosh Alemzadeh on X.
The chart marks Bitcoin’s historical bullish phases, such as the 60x increase since around 2011, the 20x increase in 2017, and the 6x increase during the 2020-2021 bull run.
These phases follow a pattern where the price of Bitcoin first consolidates and then undergoes a sharp, almost vertical rise.
BTC/USD two-month price chart. Source: Kush Alemzadeh
As of October 2024, Bitcoin is showing signs of breaking out of its long-term consolidation phase, which typically marks the start of a bull run within the parabolic channel marked by the two red dashed lines.
Market analyst Ted Pillows echoed this sentiment, highlighting a similar breakout of Bitcoin’s consolidation channel.
Bitcoin/USD weekly price chart. Source: Ted Pillows
He believes that Bitcoin’s “parabolic phase” has begun, consistent with historical patterns of rapid price acceleration.
Alemzadeh’s analysis predicts Bitcoin will rise to over $100,000 in 2025 and to $250,000 in the long term
Another bullish signal for Bitcoin comes from its on-chain data that tracks whale activity on spot exchanges.
The “Exchange Whale Ratio,” represented by a 30-day moving average, currently reflects a pattern last observed after the 2020 crash. In this case, whales actively accumulated Bitcoin, followed by a massive bull run that pushed Bitcoin to a new all-time high in late 2021.
Bitcoin transaction whale ratio. Source: CryptoQuant
As of October 2024, similar whale accumulation patterns suggest that large holders are preparing for potential price increases, with CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu noting:
“They (whales) may benefit from potential long-term price increases after the next Bitcoin halving.”
The third indicator focuses on the dominance of stablecoins.Market analyst Doctor Magic noted that the dominance of stablecoins such as USDT, USDC, and DAI has steadily declined since mid-2024.
Historically, when capital starts to flow out of stablecoins, it is a precursor to a major rally in the prices of top cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, as shown below.
Stablecoin market capitalization (black) vs. BTC/USD (green) weekly chart. Source: Doctor Magic
In other words, the decline in stablecoin dominance suggests that investors expect the value of Bitcoin to appreciate relative to the stronger U.S. dollar, reflecting growing risk appetite and confidence in the market.
If this trend continues, it could be strong evidence that the parabolic phase of Bitcoin has begun as more liquidity flows back into Bitcoin, driving its price higher.
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