2025 All in Ethereum: Wall Street's "magician" makes another big bet

Author: 0xLeoDeng Source: X, @leodeng08

Eight years ago, Tom Lee accurately bet on a 10-fold surge in Bitcoin's value. Why is he now all-in on Ethereum?

1. Who is Tom Lee?

Tom Lee is a veteran Wall Street strategist. He was formerly the chief equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase and later founded Fundstrat. Let's first take a look at his past: Born in Michigan to Korean immigrants, he graduated from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania with a major in finance and accounting. Joined JPMorgan Chase in 1999 and served as Chief Equity Strategist from 2007 to 2014. Known for his independent, data-driven research, he once published a report on Nextel in 2002 that caused an 8% stock price drop, sparking an internal investigation, but ultimately vindicated his expertise. In 2017, he was one of the first major institutional investors to come out bullish on Bitcoin, publishing the report "A Valuation Framework for Bitcoin as a Gold Alternative," which accurately predicted Bitcoin's fair value would reach $20,300 by 2022. Tom Lee isn't a speculator, but someone who can predict the direction of the trend and create it. Now, the legendary analyst has once again gone all in. This time, it's not Bitcoin, but Ethereum, and BMNR, the "Ethereum version of MicroStrategy" he personally built. Second, why is Tom Lee bullish on Ethereum right now? In a recent interview, Tom Lee was asked: If he had to invest all his money in BTC or ETH over the next 10 years, which would he choose? Tom Lee: Of course I'd choose Ethereum. Let's analyze Tom Lee's perspective on the reasons: 1. ETH presents the biggest macro trade opportunity over the next 10-15 years. Tom Lee explicitly stated that ETH presents the biggest opportunity over the next decade because it sits at the intersection of three major trends: the on-chain integration of finance, the widespread adoption of stablecoins, and AI intelligence. In his view, Ethereum will play a core role in the financial system over the next decade, with growth potential even expected to surpass that of Bitcoin in its early days. His short-term target (next 12 months) is $10,000-20,000; in the long term, it could reach $60,000 or higher. 2. Wall Street Will Join the Ethereum Consensus Through Staking As Wall Street financializes the world on blockchain, traditional financial institutions will increasingly leverage blockchain technology for financial transactions and product innovation. Among public blockchains, Ethereum, as a Layer 1 blockchain, supports smart contracts, can store and compute data, and is the world's largest smart contract platform. With a zero downtime record and strong network effects, it is the preferred underlying layer for these innovations. Tom Lee believes that the way traditional finance participates in Ethereum isn't through buying and selling, but through staking. Institutions stake ETH to participate in Ethereum's improvements, a key difference between centralized finance (CeFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). Staking isn't a tool for generating income, but rather a right to participate and a voice. Through ETH, Wall Street will find a gateway to "interfering in the governance of a decentralized world." 3. Stablecoins Will Be the Demand Engine for ETH Tom Lee likened stablecoins to "the crypto world's ChatGPT moment." Widespread adoption of stablecoins (by consumers, businesses, and banks) marks a critical turning point for cryptocurrency. He cited US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's prediction that the stablecoin market will grow from a few hundred billion today to $3.7-4 trillion (approximately 15-20 times). Currently, giants such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon, Walmart, Amazon, and Robinhood are issuing or deploying stablecoins. The majority of these stablecoins are run on Ethereum (accounting for approximately 53.62% of the total stablecoin supply). This will lead to exponential growth in Ethereum network fees and usage (USDT and USDC currently account for 25%-30% of ETH network fees), making ETH a direct beneficiary of the GENIUS Act and the stablecoin boom. As @wangfeng_0128 noted, stablecoin legislation allows Ethereum to achieve the best of both worlds, embodying both "market correctness" and "political correctness." 4. AI and robotics will drive explosive growth in ETH applications. Driven by AI, assets and robotics will be fully tokenized. Ethereum is the most powerful platform for this token economy. He believes that AI-driven automation and robotics tokenization will increase demand for the Ethereum network, particularly in enterprise applications and financial infrastructure. ETH is no longer just something you "buy and hold"; it's a token asset that must be "used." Third, why didn't he buy ETH directly, but instead went all-in with "BMNR"? 1. Why did he choose the "coin-stock linkage" MicroStrategy model? In Tom Lee's view, compared to ETFs or spot trading for on-chain custody, ETH MicroStrategy offers five structural advantages: - When the stock price is higher than the net asset value, ETH can be purchased through additional share issuance, thereby achieving a reflexive increase in net asset value per share (NAV).  - It can combine convertible bonds, options, and other instruments to hedge volatility, reducing financing costs while enabling low- or even zero-cost position building.  - It has the ability to acquire other on-chain financial companies, further amplifying NAV leverage.  - It can expand into businesses such as ETH staking, DeFi yields, and on-chain infrastructure, building a sustainable source of cash flow.  - Once its ETH holdings occupy a core position in the on-chain ecosystem, perhaps becoming a key node in the stablecoin payment and clearing network, it will possess a status similar to "sovereign put" potential, potentially making it a strategic asset that financial institutions prioritize for acquisition.  - It has the ability to acquire other on-chain financial institutions through mergers and acquisitions of financial institutions, further amplifying NAV leverage.  - It can expand into businesses such as ETH staking, DeFi yields, and on-chain infrastructure, building a sustainable source of cash flow.  - Once its ETH holdings occupy a core position in the on-chain ecosystem, perhaps becoming a key node in the stablecoin payment and clearing network, it will have a status similar to "strategic acquisition potential" (sovereign put), potentially making it a strategic asset that financial institutions prioritize for acquisition.  - For this reason, Tom Lee chose a new model that integrates on-chain and the stock market, rather than an ETF or fund structure. 2. BMNR: The Carrier of Tom Lee's Ethereum Strategy - Tom Lee leads BMNR, positioning it as the "MicroStrategy of Ethereum." - The goal is to hold 5% of the world's ETH, a plan dubbed the "Alchemy of 5%." - Within 35 days, BMNR has acquired over 833,000 ETH, with a market capitalization exceeding $3 billion (as of August 5, 2025), making it the world's third-largest crypto asset holder, behind only MSTR and MARA. 3. Capital and markets fully support BMNR - Peter Thiel (9.1% stake) @PeterThiel: Silicon Valley investment godfather (early investors in Facebook, SpaceX, Palantir, Stripe, Airbnb, etc.), co-founder of PayPal, early ally of Trump (introducer of Vice President Vance), author of "Zero to One" - Bill Miller III @BillMiller3rd : An early investor in Bitcoin, bought MicroStrategy in 2020

 - ARK Invest @CathieDWood: Has purchased approximately 6.32 million shares of BitMine, worth approximately US$208 million

 - Other supporters: Mosaic, Founders Fund, Pantera, FalconX, Galaxy, Kraken, DCG and other first-tier funds

4. Compared with other ETH micro-strategy companies, BMNR has stronger financial and liquidity strength

 - BMNR launched a US$100 million stock repurchase plan

 - The company holds more than US$400 million in cash and has no debt

 - Currently, it's one of the most liquid crypto stocks in the US, with a daily trading volume of $1.6 billion, ranking it in the top 50 US stocks in terms of liquidity, second only to Uber and surpassing traditional leaders like MSTR and COIN.

Fourth Prediction: BMNR May Embark on an "Institutional 2.0 Model" for Crypto Asset Holdings

While Tom Lee and BMNR are forging ahead, heavily betting on Ethereum, calmer voices within the industry urge caution.

Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz warns that the peak of new entrants has passed, and the focus is shifting to scaling existing players.

In other words, the early BTC-style "MicroStrategy play" is nearing its end. The next step is "who can deepen, strengthen, and sustain their ETH holding strategy?" $BMNR may represent this new path of "institutionalization + diversification + high scalability." It all depends on how Tom Lee manages it. Amidst the current backdrop of accelerating institutionalization and increasingly pronounced market concentration, BMNR may be the only ETH-focused company with the potential to rival MSTR. Conclusion: In 2017, Tom Lee chose Bitcoin; in 2025, he chose Ethereum and BMNR. This isn't a repeat, but an upgrade. Driven by the changing context of the times and the evolution of Ethereum, Tom Lee aims not just for stock price gains but to define and lead an era. Can Tom Lee continue his legacy in this battle? The answer will be left to history.