The moment the night sky over Tehran was torn apart by flames, the wealth of 140,000 investors worldwide vanished. February 28, 2026, is a day destined to be etched in history. The United States and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran, missiles struck downtown Tehran, and Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in the attack. Subsequently, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a retaliatory operation codenamed "True Promise-4," using missiles and drones to attack 27 US military bases in the Middle East. This is not a movie plot, not a history textbook, but the reality unfolding right now. As the smoke of war rose, global financial markets instantly descended into madness: Bitcoin plummeted below $63,200, and 140,000 investors suffered margin calls; while gold, like a lion awakening, broke free of its $5,390/ounce barrier, soaring into the sky. War and wealth have always been two sides of the same coin. Today, we won't discuss abstract international relations; we simply want to cut through the fog of war and see how this storm truly affects us all. I. Why Does the US Insist on Attacking Iran? The Truth Behind It Is Not So Simple. 1. Extreme Anxiety Before the "Nuclear Threshold" The primary reason for the US military action is its extreme fear of Iran crossing the "nuclear weaponization threshold." Recalling the "12-Day War" launched by the US and Israel in June 2025, although the US military had a large presence, it failed to completely destroy the Fordow underground nuclear facility buried deep beneath a solid mountain. Subsequently, Iran directly cut off international nuclear inspection channels, and its nuclear program became a "black box" completely baffling to the US intelligence community. In the recently concluded Geneva negotiations, the United States adopted a hardline "all or nothing" stance, demanding that Iran achieve "zero enrichment" of nuclear weapons; Iran, however, remained unyielding, viewing its nuclear rights as a matter of national sovereignty. When "gunboat diplomacy" stalled at the negotiating table, Washington's hardliners concluded that since an agreement couldn't be reached, the only option was to use "massive bunker buster bombs" for a permanent disarmament. 2. The Temptation of Regime Change: "Strike While the Iron Is Hot" If the nuclear issue was the stated reason, what truly propelled Washington to its decision was their firm belief that they had encountered a "once-in-a-century" strategic window of opportunity. Over the past two years, with Hamas and Hezbollah suffering heavy blows and the Assad regime in Syria collapsing, Iran's "axis of resistance," upon which it relied for self-preservation, has essentially disintegrated. Meanwhile, years of extreme sanctions have caused rampant inflation in Iran, triggering a nationwide wave of protests by the end of 2025. American neoconservatives are indulging in a delusion: that a single, decisive blow from the outside will cause the regime to crumble under pressure from both within and without. For the Trump administration, eager to leave a political legacy of "pacifying the Middle East," this temptation of a "one-shot solution" is simply irresistible. 3. Being "Kidnapped" by Allies and a Self-Inflicted "Reputation Trap" The far-right Israeli government played a key "tractor-trailer" role. To deflect international condemnation of his actions in Gaza and evade domestic legal accountability, Netanyahu deliberately exaggerated the Iranian threat, successfully binding the United States tightly to Israel's war machine. Meanwhile, the US military had amassed a massive fleet in the Persian Gulf and issued a harsh ultimatum. When Iran saw through the bluff and refused to yield, Washington, in order to save face as a superpower, was ultimately swayed by inertia, turning false deterrence into real disaster. II. The Cryptocurrency Market: From Panic Selling to the Game of "Digital Gold" Short-Term: Panic Selling, 140,000 Liquidated As soon as news of the war broke, cryptocurrencies, as highly volatile and risky assets, were hit hardest. On February 28, Bitcoin plummeted after the news broke, hitting a low of $63,216.01 within 24 hours, setting a new recent low. The entire cryptocurrency market was in dire straits. As of the evening of February 28th, a total of 144,384 investors worldwide had experienced "margin calls," with a total liquidation amount reaching $460 million. This is the cruelty of war—while you're still asleep, your wealth has vanished. Mid-term: Bullish and Bearish Interplay, What is Smart Money Thinking? After the crash, market logic has become complex. On the positive side, Iran's disconnection from the SWIFT system may make cryptocurrency its only cross-border asset transfer channel; as a global mining hub, the closure of Iranian mining farms has led to a decrease in global computing power, which in turn enhances the scarcity of Bitcoin. Options market data reveals the true thinking of smart money: the biggest pain point for Bitcoin options expiring on March 27th is as high as $76,000, while the current price is around $67,000. This means the market has a strong expectation for a future corrective rebound. More importantly, the put/call option open interest ratio is 0.75, which is below 1, indicating that call option positions still dominate. However, within 24 hours of trading, this ratio surged to 1.37—long-term institutions maintain a long position, while short-term funds buy put options to hedge risks. The market presents a delicate pattern of "short-term defense and long-term bullishness." III. Gold and Silver: Eternal Safe Havens When war breaks out, the ancient safe-haven asset—gold—once again proves its irreplaceable value. On March 2nd, spot gold broke through $5,390 per ounce, and silver also climbed above $96. This surge in gold prices has two underlying reasons: first, geopolitical tensions directly boosted global demand for safe-haven assets; second, the Strait of Hormuz, controlled by Iran, handles 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport, and escalating conflict has raised concerns about supply disruptions, pushing up global inflation expectations. A research report from Huachuang Securities points out that gold prices are entering a supercycle, with central bank demand for gold continuously strengthening; silver, due to its combined industrial and financial attributes, has shown stronger price elasticity in this conflict. UBS suggests that investors allocate a mid-single-digit percentage of their portfolios to gold as a strategic tool to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks. IV. Ordinary People: War Is Not Far Away From Us The Darkest Hour for the Iranian People In Minab, Iran, an attack on a primary school resulted in 165 deaths. Survivors wept amidst the ruins, and the entire country plunged into 40 days of national mourning. Economically, the Iranian rial has plummeted to 1.65 million rials to the US dollar on the black market, a devaluation of over 95% in ten years; the national inflation rate exceeds 60%, and food prices have surged by 110% year-on-year. An average worker earns only about $70 a month, while a kilogram of beef can cost a quarter of that salary. This is the truth of war: it destroys lives and robs people of hope. Impact on Ordinary People: Your Wallet is Being "Robbed" Although we are far from war, in this era of globalization, no one is a complete island. First, refueling will be more expensive. The Strait of Hormuz has been temporarily blocked, and international oil prices have surged by more than 13% at the opening. China is the world's largest importer of crude oil, and the rise in oil prices will directly affect domestic refined oil prices. Second, the cost of living will rise. Rising oil prices will drive up logistics costs, ultimately reflected in the prices of all goods. Prices in Iran are about 30% higher than before the conflict. While the situation may not be as dramatic domestically, inflationary pressures are building. Third, caution is advised when investing. Many people see rising gold prices and think they can make a fortune, but gold is not a "sure thing." Similarly, the cryptocurrency market is far more speculative than gold, and those without risk management experience may suffer even greater losses. In conclusion: We were not born in a peaceful era. "We were not born in a peaceful era, but we live in a peaceful country." This statement sounds especially heavy against the backdrop of war. While we are shocked by the situation in Iran, we might as well reflect on ourselves: Why can our children go to school safely? Why can our elderly live peacefully? This peace did not fall from the sky, but was bought with the blood of countless ancestors and protected by a strong national defense. News of war is often accompanied by extreme emotions: panic, conspiracy theories, and capitalist maneuvering. For ordinary people, understanding the core logic is crucial: War is closely related to interests; market fluctuations are the result of changes in risk appetite; gold appreciation is conditional, not a guaranteed profit; the crypto market is more likely to reflect panic than rational value; recognizing risks and avoiding blindly following the crowd is the most mature investment approach for everyone. In this unfolding geopolitical tragedy, the fluctuating numbers in the financial markets may seem indifferent, but understanding these changes and protecting your own and your family's wealth is an essential lesson we must learn in this turbulent era. After all, peace is not a given, and a stable life needs to be cherished all the more. Disclaimer: The content of this article represents only the author's objective investment research analysis based on publicly available market data and macroeconomic events, intended for industry exchange and academic reference, and does not constitute any form of investment, trading, or financial advice. The cryptocurrency and its derivatives markets are highly volatile and uncertain, which may lead to significant losses of principal. Readers are advised to strictly abide by the relevant laws and regulations of their country or region, conduct independent risk assessments based on their own risk tolerance, and make prudent decisions. Investing involves risks; please invest cautiously.
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