$120,000 before Christmas: Why Bitcoin could surge again

Author: Katherine Ross, Blockworks; Compiler: Baishui, Golden Finance

Bitcoin could hit $120,000 by Christmas.

Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, believes.

There’s a lot of interest in Bitcoin and Bitcoin ETFs,” which could fuel the rise in Bitcoin, he added.

I won’t sugarcoat it. This rise looks difficult right now. Bitcoin spent most of last weekend below six figures, unable to reach and hold $100,000.

But McClurg told me that all the work he’s done makes him believe a rally could happen. Even if it doesn’t reach $120,000, he hopes it’s just a matter of when we see it, not if.

And, if we don't see that number before Christmas, he's fairly certain we'll see it before the New Year rolls around.

Keep in mind that McClurg's price target is very similar to that of Ledn's John Glover (just $5,000 different).

Look how far we’ve come this year

As I wrote last week, some analysts worry that late January could mark a turning point for Bitcoin.

K33’s Vetle Lunde wrote in a report: “Over the past three cycles, the average distance between BTC’s first cycle ATH and last ATH was 318 days. Assuming the average trajectory remains the same, the peak would occur on January 17th. Considering Trump’s inauguration will take place on January 20th, this is not impossible.”

McClurg doesn’t think we’ll see a market peak next month. Instead, he thinks it could last anywhere from June to October, especially based on the fact that Bitcoin has historically run roughly six months after a new president takes office.

When I asked if the four-year cycle would continue moving forward, McClurg answered yes… but with a twist.

“I believe the cycle is still here to stay, but having said that, over time, Bitcoin will start to align more closely with the broader macroeconomic cycle than the typical four-year cycle,” he told me.

Now, this is noteworthy for a few reasons: We have some macro events coming up. Not only do we have the all-important November CPI coming up this week, but we also have the Fed meeting next week. Both of these could have a positive (or negative, depending on the data and narrative) impact on Bitcoin.

It seems like continued volatility between $90,000 and $100,000 is a given.

But, who knows. The holiday season could make the market feel merry and bright, and a $120,000 rally could be just around the corner.