Polymarket's "No" bet on "Christ's Second Coming" could yield a 5.5% annualized return, outperforming US Treasury bonds.

A Polymarket contract predicting whether Jesus Christ would return to Earth in 2025 attracted approximately $3.3 million in investment. Since the event was ultimately ruled "no," participants who bet against it at the April peak earned an annualized return of about 5.5%, outperforming even the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds during the same period. The report notes that the contract maintained a "return" probability above 3%, demonstrating the pricing characteristics of prediction markets driven by emotion, belief, and speculation. Bloomberg also points out that while similar contracts have increased attention to prediction markets, they have also sparked academic debate. Some scholars argue that such highly entertaining or symbolic events may diminish the informational value of prediction markets on serious public issues. With the contract relaunched in a 2026 version, the market currently still assigns the event a probability of about 2%, reflecting the continued attraction of speculative capital to prediction markets under the narrative of "low probability, high return." (Bloomberg)