Analysis: Bitcoin's year-end rebound faltered; a return to $90,000 would be a key turning point.

Bitcoin's momentum slowed after rebounding to $90,000 at the end of the year, constrained by insufficient demand and weakening on-chain activity. Analysts point out that only if BTC regains a foothold above $90,000, accompanied by a recovery in demand, could a new round of price increases begin in early 2026. Data shows that Bitcoin's apparent demand (market buying demand minus new selling supply) has turned negative, falling to approximately -3,491 BTC, the lowest level since October, reflecting a risk-averse market during the year-end period. Meanwhile, the Coinbase premium index, which measures US investor sentiment, fell to -0.08, indicating that selling pressure in the US has not yet subsided. Analysts warn that caution is advised when going long until this indicator recovers. At the institutional level, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $782 million last week, further confirming the decline in institutional risk appetite. The market believes that if ETF funds return to net inflows, it will be a significant signal of a market restart. In terms of price structure, Bitcoin is currently holding the $84,000 support level, but has been resisted near $90,000 four times since mid-December. Analysts point out that once the price effectively breaks through the $90,000-$92,000 range, upward momentum is expected to resume. Technically, some analysts have observed a potential hidden bullish divergence on the monthly chart, believing that if the monthly close is above $90,300, it will strengthen the bullish structure; if the breakout pattern holds, the subsequent target could even be $122,000. (Cointelegraph)