Matrixport: The crypto market may be shifting from a phase where downside risks outweigh upside potential, while upside still requires catalysts.

Matrixport released its latest weekly report, stating that Bitcoin has been on a downward trend since mid-October 2025, with market sentiment becoming more cautious. With the "four-year cycle" narrative resurfacing, most traders expect Bitcoin to remain under pressure in 2026. Key Observations: In recent months, Bitcoin has continued to be under pressure in an environment of converging volatility, deleveraging, and a lack of risk appetite. From the perspective of derivatives, ETFs, and technical indicators, the market positioning structure has changed. The largest Bitcoin options expiring in history is about to expire, and the strike price distribution has become an important indicator for observing market pressure and opportunities. Market Outlook: The market usually tends to be conservative at the end of the year, and the risk appetite of funds declines. After entering the new year, with the reallocation of funds and the recovery of risk budgets, market sentiment may accelerate its reversal. The technical structure shows that the downward momentum has slowed down marginally, but the upward trend has not yet formed a clear consensus. The market may be shifting from a stage of "downside risk is dominant" to a stage of "downside is limited, and upward movement still needs catalysts". The current Bitcoin price and weekly stochastic indicator show that the market may have entered the oversold zone. The stochastic indicator has dropped to the 17% level. The crypto market may be shifting from a stage of "downside risk is dominant" to a stage of "downside is limited, and upward movement still needs catalysts".