The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January has fallen to 19.9%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged by March is 44.7%.

According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January has fallen below 20%, currently standing at 19.9%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 80.1%. Last week, the probability of a Fed rate cut in January rose to 31%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by March next year is 44.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 46.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 8.8%. The next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026.