Nobel laureate Paul Krugman: November non-farm payroll data indicates the US economy is in the early stages of recession.

Nobel laureate and former New York Times columnist Paul Krugman analyzed the November non-farm payrolls report released on December 16th, stating that while it's too early to declare a recession, the data at least indicates the economy is in the early stages. He noted that the overall unemployment rate in November was 4.6%, higher than the 2024 average of 4%, a figure close to triggering the "Sahm ​​Rule." Although the Department of Labor couldn't collect key October data due to the government shutdown, interpolating the September (4.4%) and November (4.6%) unemployment rates estimates the October rate at approximately 4.5%. These three months' unemployment rates closely match the predicted recessionary rise in unemployment according to the Sahm Rule. (Note: The Sahm Rule, proposed by former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm, is an immediate recession indicator based on the unemployment rate.) The indicator is triggered when the U.S. three-month moving average unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more from the lowest three-month average of the previous 12 months, and is generally considered a signal that the economy has entered the early stages of a recession.