US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly surged by 119,000 in September, making the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision more complex.

The UK Financial Times' commentary on the US September non-farm payroll report points out that the unexpected rebound in the US labor market will further complicate the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to cut interest rates next month. The report, released Thursday, showed an increase of 119,000 non-farm payroll jobs in September, exceeding not only the 50,000 predicted by economists surveyed by institutions but also significantly higher than the revised 22,000 in August. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in August, a new high since 2021. This report is the first economic health indicator released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics since the record-breaking shutdown of the US federal government led to a halt in official data releases. The unexpectedly positive data will reinforce the stance of hawkish members of the Federal Open Market Committee, who have consistently warned the Fed against cutting rates too quickly. Following the data release, US Treasury yields and the dollar index both fell. Despite President Trump's long-term pressure on the Fed to cut rates, a deep division has emerged within the central bank: one faction advocates for further rate cuts at the December meeting to support the labor market, while the other is concerned about the potential for increased inflation risks. The government shutdown has further complicated the Federal Reserve's decision-making process—regular economic reports have been interrupted, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Wednesday that due to the stagnation of data collection during the shutdown, it will no longer release a separate October employment report; some data will be combined with the November report. (Jinshi)