The US government is unlikely to resume work in the short term, with only a 3% chance of ending the shutdown before November 7.

According to Polymarket data, the probability of a US government shutdown ending after November 16 has risen to 44%, indicating that the market expects the government to be difficult to resume operations in the short term. Data shows that the probability of ending between November 4 and 7 is 3%, between November 8 and 11 is 22%, and between November 12 and 15 is 30%. As of now, the US federal government shutdown has lasted 37 days, breaking the previous record. The previous shutdown from the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019 lasted 35 days. Analysts point out that the two parties remain deadlocked on the appropriations bill, with the Senate failing to pass the Republican-proposed temporary budget in 13 previous votes.