Key TakeawaysBitcoin rebounded to $112,000 into the weekly close but faces resistance at $113,500–$115,000.Analysts warn of a potential correction toward $108,000 before any breakout higher.US jobs data and Fed policy commentary form this week’s main macro catalyst.Gold hit $3,800/oz, raising expectations that Bitcoin may follow.On-chain data shows short-term holders panic-selling at losses, while long-term holders remain steady.Bulls Reclaim $112K Into Weekly CloseBitcoin surprised markets by closing the week above $112,000, erasing recent dips below $109,000. Traders, however, remain cautious. Popular analyst Ted Pillows said BTC needs a daily close above $113,500 to confirm strength, while others see the market trading in a tight range between $108,000 and $118,000 until volume picks up.With both the monthly and quarterly closes just days away, volatility is expected to rise. CoinGlass data shows Bitcoin would close September with 3% gains and Q3 with 4.4% gains, roughly in line with historical averages.Liquidity Games and CME Futures GapExchange data highlights significant liquidations, with $350 million wiped out in 24 hours, mostly from short positions. Still, analysts warn of looming downside: a move below $107,000 could liquidate $5 billion in longs.Traders also flagged a new CME futures gap around the weekend open. Historically, these gaps act as “magnets,” increasing the probability of BTC revisiting lower levels before resuming any broader uptrend.US Jobs Data in Focus as Fed Faces PressureMacroeconomic events could define Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. This week’s US employment data is seen as the biggest catalyst for risk assets.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell remains under pressure from President Trump, who has repeatedly demanded faster rate cuts. The Fed delivered a 0.25% cut in September, but markets are divided on whether deeper cuts are imminent. Traders expect employment numbers to strongly influence rate expectations.Gold Sets Record High at $3,800While Bitcoin struggles to reclaim momentum, gold surged to a fresh all-time high above $3,800 per ounce. The rally reflects strong sensitivity to monetary easing, with analysts suggesting Bitcoin may lag but eventually mirror gold’s trajectory as liquidity conditions shift.Bitwise’s Andre Dragosch noted: “Gold reflects strong monetary easing already, while Bitcoin still prices in weak growth expectations. With a lag, BTC could follow with a significant rally.”On-Chain: Short-Term Holders CapitulateOn-chain metrics show short-term holders (STH) selling at losses, while long-term holders (LTH) remain unmoved. CryptoQuant analysis compared the setup to late 2024, when similar conditions preceded a major rebound.The average STH cost basis sits near $109,800, meaning Bitcoin is trading at levels where new investors are capitulating. Historically, this behavior has aligned with late-stage corrections and market resets.$115K Breakout or $108K RetestFor now, Bitcoin sits at a crossroads. Bulls need a decisive breakout above $115,000 to confirm an uptrend, while bears look for a liquidity-driven drop toward $108,000. With the quarter closing and US macro data looming, traders expect a volatile start to “Uptober.”
Catherine
