QCP: If the Fed meeting implies only one rate cut in 2025, it may be bad news for risky assets such as Bitcoin

Odaily Planet Daily News QCP Capital published an article saying that the conflict between Israel and Iran has entered the sixth day, and the two sides continue to exchange missiles, and the prospects for a diplomatic solution are bleak. G7 leaders have repeatedly called on Iran to return to nuclear negotiations with the United States, and the talks originally scheduled for this Sunday may be difficult to hold. The market is concerned about the impact of the reorganization of the power structure in the Middle East and the proxy game between the United States, Russia and China. The Strait of Hormuz has become the focus. If Iran is forced into a desperate situation, it may block this major global crude oil transportation route, triggering supply shocks and inflation risks. President Trump strongly demanded that Iran "unconditionally surrender", and the market generally expected that Iran may partially or fully succumb, but the situation remains highly uncertain. Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts and rising inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve faces a complex situation when it meets tonight. The market is currently pricing in two rate cuts in 2025 and two more in 2026, but QCP Asia expects the Federal Reserve to take a more cautious tone in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which may suggest only one rate cut in 2025, which contrasts with market expectations. If the Fed makes such an adjustment, it could put pressure on risky assets, including Bitcoin and digital assets more broadly, due to lower liquidity expectations.