Viewpoint: If the Fed does not cut interest rates this year, the US Treasury bond 2Y will rise

Odaily Planet Daily News BNP Paribas analysts pointed out in a report that if the money market excludes the Fed's expectations of rate cuts this year, the US two-year Treasury yield is expected to rise in the coming months. Analysts said: "By September 2025, we expect the market to eliminate the two rate cuts originally expected this year and postpone them to 2026." This will cause the two-year Treasury yield to rise before falling back at the end of the year. Analysts expect the two-year Treasury yield to rise to 4.10% in the third quarter and fall back to 4.00% in the fourth quarter. They expect the Fed to implement four rate cuts in 2026. (Jinshi)