Goldman Sachs Estimates Gulf Oil Exports At 15 Million To 16 Million Barrels A Day

According to CNBC, Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf states are exporting roughly 15 million to 16 million barrels of oil per day, more than 60% of the amount the region supplied to the world before the Iran war started. Goldman analysts said in a note Thursday that Gulf oil exports remain 7 million bpd to 8 million bpd below normal prewar levels, but shipments have risen 5 million bpd to 6 million bpd from the March low during the worst phase of the war. The analysts said it has become harder to measure Gulf oil flows because tanker-tracking data in the region is limited and delayed by the war. They said more tankers are leaving with transponders switched off, satellite coverage is limited, and ship-to-ship transfers outside Hormuz have increased. Goldman said the later revisions to oil volumes suggest transits through the Strait of Hormuz are probably close to the Trump administration's estimate of 8 million bpd to 10 million bpd. Daan Struyven, Goldman’s head of oil research, said the rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers and in ship-to-ship transfers shows producers and shippers are adapting to the Mideast conflict, and that shipping markets now price in disruptions likely to continue well into 2027.