Analysis: Three major risks, including oil prices surging to $200, could trigger a global economic recession.

In its latest quarterly outlook, European financial giant BNP Paribas issued a grim warning about the global economic outlook, citing three potential scenarios, including oil prices reaching $200 per barrel, that could plunge the global economy into recession. The war with Iran has already had a significant impact on the global economy, but it has not yet completely derailed it. Compared to initial expectations at the beginning of the year, global GDP growth is expected to slow, inflation to remain high, and central banks to maintain more hawkish monetary policies. Currently, oil prices are rising rapidly, with both WTI and Brent crude continuing to climb. WTI crude's daily gain once expanded to 5%, and Brent crude touched $109 per barrel, the first time since March 23, due to Iran's threat of an "unprecedented" military retaliation against the US naval blockade, and White House officials stating that Trump has discussed plans with oil companies to extend the blockade of Iran for months if necessary. BNP Paribas points out that in addition to oil prices soaring to $200, there are two other factors that could trigger a global recession. Furthermore, given a prolonged conflict, all three are likely to occur simultaneously and reinforce each other. The first risk is a disruption to energy supplies from the Middle East, exacerbating bottlenecks in the global supply chain. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have hampered the transport of global energy and critical components, potentially forcing supply rationing for some goods. The second risk is high inflation, forcing central banks worldwide to tighten monetary policy. Continued monetary tightening will further suppress economic activity and amplify the risk of recession.