The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting before April 30th is currently 52% on Polymarket, a recent increase of 6%.

According to Odaily Seer, data from Polymarket shows that the predicted probability of a diplomatic meeting between the US and Iran before April 30th is currently 52%, a recent increase of 6%. New Delhi Television reported that sources say the second round of talks between Iran and the US is scheduled for April 27th. According to market rules, if US and Iranian representatives hold a formal diplomatic meeting before 11:59 PM ET on April 30th, the market will mark it as "yes." A diplomatic meeting is defined as a formal meeting where representatives of both sides are officially present and authorized, including indirect face-to-face meetings through mediators, but excluding brief greetings or chance encounters for non-diplomatic purposes. The meeting must be in person and recognized by the government or reported by credible media. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing them in.