Polymarket's probability that "the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by May 31" has risen to 68%, a 9% increase in the last 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by May 31st has risen to 68% on Polymarket, a 9% increase in 24 hours. The contract rules for this event state that if the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals ("vessel arrivals") in the Strait of Hormuz equal to or greater than 60 on any date between the market's creation and May 31, 2026, the market will be rated "Yes"; otherwise, it will be rated "No". Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers; vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. It is reported that US Vice President Vance will travel to Pakistan on Tuesday for talks with Iran. US President Trump stated in a recent phone interview that Iran "will negotiate" and expressed confidence in the potential talks to be held in Pakistan. Trump stated that they will negotiate, and if they don't, they will face unprecedented problems. He also expressed hope that both sides could reach a "fair agreement" and emphasized that Iran would not possess nuclear weapons. He further defended the military action against Iran, claiming there was no other choice and that the matter would eventually be resolved. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.