Analysis: The probability of the US and Iran reaching an agreement on their core demands is not low.

CITIC Securities stated that, from the perspective of the US's core demands, if Iran abandons uranium enrichment, it will become the US's most significant war achievement and Trump's biggest "achievement" to appease domestic concerns. This round of conflict has already had a significant negative impact on the US midterm elections, necessitating an early exit. Since the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the US has lost control over Iran's nuclear capabilities, and past US presidents have failed to resolve this issue, severely impacting the US's Middle East strategy. Compared to the significant political propaganda effect of Iran's "abandonment of nuclear weapons," the indirect link between oil prices and inflation may have a smaller impact on elections. Therefore, the Trump administration might be willing to compromise on issues such as control of the Strait of Hormuz. From Iran's core demands, this war has proven that blocking the Strait and threatening Middle Eastern infrastructure are extremely important balancing forces, even more destructive and flexible than the threat of nuclear weapons. Compared to the extremely costly and difficult-to-control nuclear weapons, blocking the Strait and attacking infrastructure can have a significant impact on the US and global economies simply by using low-cost drones, thus forming a tool for Iran to counterbalance the US. The fact that both the US and Iran have repeatedly halted their advances at the red line of potential large-scale infrastructure destruction suggests that the probability of an extreme escalation of war is not high, and the likelihood of extreme oil prices, a severe recession, or stagflation is decreasing. (Jinshi)