Polymarket's probability that the conflict between Iran and Israel/the United States will end before April 15th has dropped to 47%, a 24-hour decrease of 22%.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of the Iran-Israel/US conflict ending before April 15th on Polymarket has dropped to 47%, a 22% decrease in 24 hours; the probability of the conflict ending before April 30th has dropped to 55%, a 16% decrease in 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume of contracts related to the "when will the Iran-Israel/US conflict end" event has exceeded $35.28 million. The contract rules for this event are as follows: if no qualifying military action occurs between Iran, Israel, and the United States for 14 consecutive days between the market's creation date and the specified end date (Eastern Time), the market will be rated "Yes"; otherwise, it will be rated "No." This 14-day period can begin at any time between the market's creation date and the specified end date (Eastern Time) and must continue until 12:00 noon Eastern Time on the 14th calendar day following the confirmation of the attack. "Military action" is defined as the use of force by Iran, Israel, or the United States against the territory or official embassies and consulates of the other party, and such action must be officially recognized by the relevant government or confirmed by a credible report with clear consensus, including but not limited to airstrikes, maritime attacks, and ground intrusions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions are not included. On the morning of April 12th local time, the US negotiating delegation left Pakistan, and its negotiations with Iran failed to reach an agreement. Al Jazeera revealed that despite numerous efforts from all parties, the US and Iran have not yet reached an agreement. A settlement agreement exists on the table. Judging from Vice President Vance's statement, some possibility still exists; he indicated this was their final and best solution. A source stated that the good news is that negotiations haven't broken down, but the bad news is that no breakthrough has been achieved. It is understood that the two sides held approximately five rounds of talks, with written exchanges of views following each round, so it seems some broader framework is in place. Currently, there is one proposal and one counter-proposal. The Iranian response needs to be monitored, as the interviewed source believes the US has made maximum demands, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, on which Iran is unwilling to concede. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing in.