Analysts: CPI data may be "ignored," with US-Iran negotiations becoming the only variable.

Foreign exchange analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta stated that given the market's focus on the US-Iran negotiations and the widespread perception that the rise in March inflation was caused by the war, the market is likely to ignore today's data, as everything hinges on the outcome of the negotiations. We can see significant divergence in overall CPI forecasts, but a more convergent focus on core CPI forecasts. The Federal Reserve is currently maintaining a firmly neutral stance but has opened the door to further tightening in case inflation expectations begin to rise or the war lasts longer than anticipated. The market expects 7 basis points of easing room by the end of the year, implying that neither rate hikes nor cuts are expected in 2026. (Jinshi)