Polymarket's probability that "Trump will announce the end of military action against Iran before April 21" has dropped to 21%, a 22% decrease in the past 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, the probability of Polymarket's "Trump announcing the end of military action against Iran before April 21" has dropped sharply to 21%, a 22% decrease in 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume of the "When will Trump announce the end of military action against Iran" event contract has reached nearly $17 million. The rules of this event contract are: if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announces that the military action against Iran launched on February 28, 2026, has ended before a specified date (Eastern Time), the market will mark it as "yes"; otherwise, the market will mark it as "no." A qualifying statement must clearly indicate that the action has ended. Informal statements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaked information are not eligible. Public written statements by Trump (e.g., posts on his personal "Truth Social" account) will be considered valid statements, as will videos posted on Trump's social media accounts. The market's primary basis for judgment is the official statement of the US government and/or its official representatives, but it also considers consensus from other credible reports. On the first day of the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran, the Israeli military launched its largest airstrike against Hezbollah in Lebanon since the start of the conflict. Iran claimed that Hezbollah violated the ceasefire agreement, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and threatened to take deterrent action against Israeli military targets. The White House announced that the first round of US-Iran talks would be held in Pakistan on the 11th, but Iran stated that three key clauses of its 10 ceasefire terms had been violated, undermining the "foundation for negotiations." However, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh recently stated that the Iranian delegation would travel to Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, to participate in the negotiations. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing them in.