Wintermute Weekly Report: Middle East geopolitics dominates markets, crypto market sentiment is subdued.

According to Wintermute's latest weekly report, the global market is entirely driven by Middle East geopolitics. Following Iran's ceasefire signal, US stocks and crude oil prices fell, while Trump's tough stance caused WTI crude oil to surge 11% to above $111. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.36%, with the market pricing in a zero probability of a Fed rate cut in April. This week's PCE data is under intense scrutiny. Crypto market sentiment is weak, with Bitcoin's weekly gain only 2% and the Fear & Greed Index at 9 (extreme fear). ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.32 billion in March, but turned to net outflows at the end of the month, with institutions switching from buying to selling. Ethereum performed relatively strongly, rising 4.2%, while Solana fell below $80 after a $285 million theft occurred due to the Drift protocol. Wintermute points out that Tuesday is a critical juncture in the conflict, with negotiations underway for a 45-day ceasefire framework. An escalation of the situation would further increase the risk premium for oil prices.