IMF Urges Japan to Continue Rate Hikes Amid Middle East Conflict

On April 4, Jin10 reported that despite the Middle East conflict posing a significant new risk to Japan's economic outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates. According to Jin10, the IMF's recommendation comes as the market widely anticipates a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan as early as April. The conflict-driven rise in oil prices and the weakening yen have increased import costs, exacerbating inflationary pressures in Japan. The IMF stated that although economic growth is expected to slow, partly due to the war in Iran, moderate wage growth will support consumer spending. The risks to Japan's economic outlook and inflation are broadly balanced, with inflation projected to return to the Bank of Japan's 2% target level by 2027. As core inflation gradually aligns with the central bank's target, the IMF suggests that Japan should continue gradual rate hikes in a flexible, well-communicated, and data-dependent manner, moving towards a neutral interest rate level. Furthermore, the IMF emphasized the importance of maintaining a flexible exchange rate mechanism, as it serves as a reliable buffer against external shocks.