According to Odaily Seer, the probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran by May 31st has dropped significantly on Polymarket, falling 12% in 24 hours. The total trading volume for the "US-Iran ceasefire" event contract is currently close to $85 million. The contract's rules state that if the US and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement (defined as a public announcement and mutual agreement to cease direct military action) by a specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will mark it as "yes"; otherwise, it will be "no." A "formal ceasefire agreement" requires explicit public confirmation from both the US and Iranian governments that they have agreed to cease military hostilities against each other, or overwhelming consensus confirmed through media reports. Previously, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell confirmed that US Army Chief of Staff Randy George was about to resign. This personnel change occurred one day after Trump's national address on the Iran war. Several senior Army officers described George's dismissal as a "blow to the Army." They were angry and frustrated by the decision, believing it further exacerbated the long-standing feeling of being "besieged" among the Army's top brass. Odaily Seer continues to focus on the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.