Polymarket currently reports a 90% probability that Anthropic will achieve a public valuation exceeding $500 billion by 2026.

According to Odaily Seer, possibly influenced by the news that "OpenAI has completed a $122 billion committed capital round, bringing its post-money valuation to $852 billion," the probability of Anthropic's publicly disclosed valuation exceeding $500 billion in 2026 dropped from 93% to 90% within the day, but rose 4% this week. The criteria for this event are: if, by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, a publicly disclosed valuation of $500 billion or higher is achieved, or a company valuation of $500 billion or higher is achieved in private financing, the event will be judged as "yes." Otherwise, it will be judged as "no." This valuation must be explicitly confirmed by Anthropic or have an overwhelming consensus in credible reporting. The primary source will be Anthropic's official communications, but credible consensus reports may also be used. Previously, it was reported that Anthropic completed a $30 billion Series G funding round in February of this year, reaching a post-money valuation of $380 billion. The round was led by GIC and Coatue, with co-lead investors including D.E. Shaw Ventures, Dragoneer, Founders Fund, ICONIQ, and MGX, and participation from Accel, Addition, JPMorgan Chase, Sequoia Capital, and Temasek. Odaily Seer continues to focus on the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.