If Iran's threats materialize, oil prices could rise to $120 a barrel or even higher.

Rystad Energy states that a threatening attack on key energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar could immediately push oil prices above $120 per barrel. The five facilities warned by Iran collectively account for approximately 20% of global liquefied natural gas trade, 10% of naphtha imports in the Asia-Pacific region, and 6% of global polyethylene production capacity—all concentrated in a region with few short-term alternatives. Rystad Energy analysts stated, "If the statement from Iran's Tasnim News Agency comes to fruition, and all these facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are attacked, at least 700,000 barrels of refined product capacity will vanish instantly from the global market, impacting diesel, jet fuel, and naphtha supplies in these three countries simultaneously." If critical infrastructure like the Saudi port of Yanbu is attacked, oil prices could even rise to $150 per barrel or higher. (Jinshi)